Science WTF? Sunday…Mother Hen and the Cock Paradox
It’s early morning and Krell has been up to no good.
“Why are you up so early?” Mother Hen asked.
“Didn’t you hear the obnoxious crowing?” Krell said, “He was crowing like a chicken possessed! Every 15 seconds with that Errr A errr A errrrrrrrr….couldn’t take it.”
“What did you do???? You better not have hurt my rooster.” Mother Hen said with a undercurrent of menace.
“Oh, you know I wouldn’t do anything to hurt our little feathery alarm clock. I put him in a box so he still thinks it nighttime.” said Krell
“Well, where is the box so I can let him out?” ask Mother Hen. She could see that Krell was in one of his nerdy moods again.
“Not so fast, Hen dearest. I also have 2 other boxes besides the one that Foghorn is in and you must choose one of the 3.”
“What? Ok, ok…” Mother Hen impatiently muttered. “Just show me the boxes and I’ll choose one. I don’t have time for your goofy games”
“But wait! That one box has the cock BUT the 2 other boxes have a…well…let’s just say a penalty. I caught a whole bunch of slugs and put them in a couple of bowls. The other two boxes have inside, that’s right, a bowl filled with slugs. When you chose the box, you must reach in with your hand, through the small hole in the box, and feel for the rooster. If you feel feathers then you win! But if you feel squirmy slimy crawling slugs, then you lose.”
“Uggghh! Gross!” shudders Mother Hen “That’s disgusting!”
Krell continued on… “If it’s any comfort at all, if you chose the wrong box you get a consolation prize.”
“What is the consolation prize?” asked Mother Hen
“A shiny new roll of duct tape.” replied Krell
“I’ve just got one question.” Mother Hen said.
“What’s that?” asked Krell
“Does the Lawyer do divorces?” said the slightly amused Mother Hen
Fortunately for Krell, he knew that Mother Hen was always game for a little mind twister.
She went over to the boxes and after a little bit of study said “I choose this one”, pointing to the far left box.
“Excellent choice!” said Krell “Before you put your hand in the box and to make it more towards your liking, I am going to reveal to you one of the boxes that has the slimy penalty.”
Krell then kicks over the far right box, exposing the bowl full of Mother Hen’s gastropod nightmares.
“Ewwwwwwwww!!” screamed Mother Hen as she backed up a couple of steps.
“Relax, they can’t jump. Ahhhh….look at them, the way they positioned themselves in a circle around the edge of the bowl. Looks like they are at the Slug Superbowl.”
Krell glanced over at Mother Hen, who was still staring at the bowl, and thought…She is going to get me. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but she…
“Anyway..” Krell continued, “Do you want to keep the box on the left that you have already selected? OR do you want to switch to the box in the center?”
That is the question for Science WTF? Sunday.
Should Mother Hen keep her original box selection or switch to the other
box?
No slugs or chickens were harmed in the making of this post.
Holte has got it. Mother Hen should always switch from her original pick. It is a very counter-intuitive problem.
Most people think that with the two doors, it is a 50/50 odds.
Actually by Mother Hen switching, she goes from a 1/3 chance to a 2/3 chance.
This is known as the Bertrand Box Paradox. Also shown as the Monte Hall Puzzle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Yes, that’s it. If she doesn’t switch, her odds remain at 1/3. (She had a 2/3 chance of being wrong with 3 doors.) Therefore, by switching, she has a 2/3 chance of being right.
Right on the money Jerry.
As the late great Judge Dread once sang…”Up With The Cock!”
Switch Mother Hen, switch. You won’t be sorry.
The theory behind the switch has something to do with Game theory.
I would listen to the box first of course. I know the difference between chicken and slug breathing 🙂
I’m sure it has something to do with some obscenely complicated mathematical construct that will make my brain hurt.
Lawyer I forgot to ask. How was the ‘fest yesterday? Did you buy stuff you couldn’t live without, like a chair that hangs from a tree? or an airplane made out of a beer can? or a big blob of trippy molten glass? Inquiring minds want to know…
All I bought was a $5 corndog that came out quicker than it went down.
Ahhhhhhhhhh! My brain! Make it stop. So now we know you bought your lovely wife slugs for her birthday. Bah! Engineers.
I say switch. Originally she had a 2 out of 3 change of picking the slugs. Now her odds are even. Pick the other one.
I seen this question asked in a somewhat different way and I don’t remember the answer, but I think my reasoning is correct.
Little early but what the heck…it’s Mother Hens birthday
Yes…and the only reason I didn’t move it. Who can resist the birthday of the Mother of Hens :-)?
That is weird…was going to respond to a Mike comment and it changed right before my eyes. I have got to lay off the Mad Dog and cough syrup.
LOL! It’s magic. Happens all the time.