My Can’t-Miss Oscar Pool Picks (Use at Your Own Risk)
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Going for the jackpot in an office Oscar pool? Here’s where I would put my money, if I had any.
Picture: The King’s Speech. Word is that The Social Network has faded while The Fighter has picked up steam, but it’s too late. I feel 98 percent certain on this one.
Director: Tom Hooper. The King’s helmer won at the DGAs, so he will probably win on Feb. 27. Only other nominee with a realistic chance: Social boss David Fincher.
Actor: Colin Firth. No doubt.
Actress: Natalie Portman. Her victory at the SAG Awards augurs well for this Swan. Which is bad news for four-times-nominated Annette Bening.
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale. Duh.
Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo. This is the most difficult acting category. I might be saying Leo because I cringe at the thought of Hailee Steinfeld winning in the wrong category. (Stupid, stupid Academy voters! How could you?) But Leo did win at the SAGs, and SAG winners tend to win at the Oscars.
Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin. Count on it. Maybe the only category where The Social Network will win.
Original Screenplay: David Seidler. Not the only category where The King’s Speech will win, obviously. But then again, this award just mi
ght go to the pair who wrote The Kids Are All Right. If it does, it will be that film’s only Oscar (unless Bening pulls off a surprise win as Best Actress).
Expect King’s Speech nominees to ride the wave to victory in Art Direction, Costume Design, Original Score and Film Editing, whether they deserve to win or not.
One might think the wave would include Cinematography, but True Grit lenser Roger Deakins is nominated in that category for the ninth time and hasn’t won yet. Expect to see him up there grasping a golden man at last.
There are other categories, and I’ll give you my hunches in them. Inception will probably win in both Sound categories and in Visual Effects. In Makeup, my Canadian-biased hunch (really more a hope) is for Barney’s Version. Original Song is a tough call, but if I had to wager I’d go with the ditty from Toy Story 3.
As the only cartoon nominated for Best Picture this year, Toy Story 3 seems a very safe bet to win Best Animated Feature.
Documentary and Foreign Language Film are tough calls. Gun to my head, I’d say Inside Job and the Denmark’s In a Better World. But I’ll be cheering for Canada’s Incendies.
OK, now … What have I missed? Oh yeah … Documentary Short: Killing in the Name. Animated Short: The Gruffalo. Live Action Short: Wish 143. Those are all nothing but guesses.
Well, there you have it. Go ahead and follow my tips. If you win the pool, I can supply a mailing address for my share of the jackpot (and I have a PayPal account). If you don’t win – well, wasn’t it foolish of you to take my advice?
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Haven’t seen Winter’s Bone, Toy Story or Black Swan – From what I have seen King’s speech is scrapping it out with The Fighter. If there is a performance to beat Firth’s I haven’t seen it.
It’s between Colin Firth and Colin Firth for me as far as best actor
Natalie Portman and Natalie Portman.
Best film, I’m torn between The King’s speech and Inception
Only thing I would really like to see win is Biutiful in foreign language films. Why you ask, it’s the only one I’ve seen. Bardem won the best actor award at Cannes for his role in this one.
The rest, far as I’m concerned now, meh.
It might interest you to know that, while Ebert liked Biutiful, both the featured critics on his new TV show gave it a thumbs down. Then again, maybe that wouldn’t interest you at all.
I honestly can’t imagine Colin Firth not winning on Feb. 27. Portman, OTOH, could lose to Bening or even Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Boner).
I think I’ve mentioned before that Black Swan’s my favorite of the Best Pic nominees. 🙂
I don’t watch too much tee vee so I never know what the critics are saying. Whether that is good or bad, I have no idea. Inception is my favorite between King’s Speech and that. I liked Black Swan well enough to sit through, not enough for Best Picture.
I’m a real sucker for ta pic like King’s Speech. It was great. I hear Black Swan is terribly good too. I was UNimpressed with The Social Network… I’d like it if it had the nod of truth to it…better. I don’t really think Sorkin deserves it. Benning deserves it, for sure. That was a fine movie, it reflects the world as it is… pretty well.
Is it me, or are these Oscars kinda colorless, pale? Or is it me?
Black Swan is awesome, and Natalie Portman is a big part of why it’s awesome. Hailee Steinfeld, by the way, is wrongly taking up a Supporting Actress slot that could have been filled by either Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey of Black Swan.
I never got the chance to see The King’s Speech. I’ll wait for the DVD. Not my kind of movie.
Many people say The King’s Speech is the Academy’s type of movie. Since it’s not a visual-effects extravaganza, it should lose nothing in DVD format.