A Stand for Rationality

We’ve been having a pretty rough time down here in New Zealand.
We had the first big earthquake for some time in Christchurch last September, causing a large amount of damage, but no loss of life, and then the second quake hit last month, causing vastly more damage, and well over 150 dead.
We thought we had it bad, until the mega-quake and tsunami hit Japan. Our thoughts go out to the people of Japan in their troubles.
But there is a brighter side.
Like every country in the world, we have our range of nutters. Ranging from the extreme right-wing Christians to the Loony Left Greenies. We also have the added dimension of our native peoples (The Maori) spiritual dimension, where the culture has a tradition of mystics and prophets.

After the big quake in Christchurch, a gentleman (presumably) called Ken Ring, who uses the Moon to predict weather said he had predicted the big quake. He actually predicted (according to the Press) three big quakes.
Wow. I never thought of that.
We get about 60-70 quakes a DAY down here in NZ, most of them below 3 on the Richter scale, but enough go above 4 to make most kiwis familiar with the sensations. So a prediction of 3 “Big” quakes is fairly safe. Just make a table of all recorded seismic activity, and pick the 3 biggest. And voila, the prediction is correct. 3 Big Quakes.

But this guy went one further. He said that there would be another “Devastating Earthquake” on March 20th.
This prediction did not go down well with many still-shocked Cantabrians (people who live in the Canterbury area, which included Christchurch) who were worried that many of the people currently helping them restore services and repair buildings would depart if they thought the prediction was true.
But fortunately, we have a champion in the unusual guise of a politician. A politician who actually stands up to the loons and tells them basically to “bugger off”

As reported in the NZ Herald:

Nick Smith is the Minister responsible for ACC [Ed.This is a national accident compensation agency. You cannot sue someone for causing an accident down here, but everyone qualifies for automatic payments in lieu. Please note this. many visitors from the USA are shocked and horrified that they do not have redress to legal infighting.]– but some might say he’s just asking to come a cropper.

Smith and the Skeptics Society are planning a lunch in one of Christchurch’s highest, oldest, stone buildings – on the day that “moon man” Ken Ring says the city will be hit by another devastating earthquake. Ring’s prediction of another earthquake on March 20 – a week today – has caused alarm among some Cantabrians, who have said they will flee the city.

But the minister, who has a doctorate in geotechnical engineering, said he took a very dim view of people causing alarm with no scientific underpinning.

“I believe in free speech but just as people should not stand up in a picture theatre and scream fire, people should not be making phony predictions of major earthquakes.”

The Herald on Sunday reported last week that both Ring and television psychic Deb Webber were predicting a further earthquake in the city, to the fury of city leaders and the scientific community. Smith said he was aware of other geologists and earthquake engineers who would also attend next Sunday’s lunch, to “strongly discredit” Ring’s claims.

Smith said he was “surprised and taken aback” by the number of people who had given credence to the prediction.

So, is this the pride before a fall? The ACC minister said no.

“It is important that such nonsense is exposed and people with good science point out the flaws in those who claim they can predict when earthquakes can occur.”

The lunch will be held at noon on March 20 at the Sign of the Kiwi, on the top of the Port Hills – which Smith said was the closest building to the epicentre of the February 22 quake.

Skeptics spokeswoman Vicki Hyde said she wouldn’t be surprised if a shake happened during the lunch because Christchurch had been getting shakes almost every day – “but it wouldn’t have anything to do with what Ken Ring’s been saying”.

Earthquake engineers and geologists are invited to attend the meal, for a discussion about “the earth moving under our feet and what we know and don’t know”.

Hyde said science was about uncertainty – it was “the ones who say they know what’s going to happen” who had to be treated with caution.

She said Ken Ring had scared a lot of people.

“When you get situations where people start to create panic you really do have to say, that’s bulls**t mate.

Sometimes I’m so proud to be part of this country, where we have someone in public office who is prepared to stand up and tell everyone that “Science Works”. Also very proud to live in a country where politicians and TV presenters can actually tell someone they’re talking “Bullshit” or tell them to “Bugger Off”. It’s so refreshing to hear the truth sometimes.

Then I read about our own Right-Wing Religious Nutters and feel depressed again.
Ah Well.
No country is perfect, and this one is better than most.

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