Oddsmakers: Obama can’t possibly lose in 2012

Lifetime odds winner predicts Obama winner in 2012

American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades — one that President Barack Obama might have an interest in seeing Lichtman extend.

obama

Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan, U.S. News and World Report reported. The formula that predicted Obama’s 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model, described in his book The Keys to the White House, relies on 13 “keys” that gauge the performance of the sitting president’s party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party’s favor, the candidate they present will win.

Nine of the keys fall in Obama’s favor, Lichtman said — more than enough for reelection.

Created in 1981 and first tested against the 1984 election, Lichtman’s model hasn’t failed yet.

Even in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity and widely expected to win, Lichtman thought otherwise.

“I got a call from this woman with a thick southern drawl,” Lichtman said. “It was Clinton’s special assistant. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is history.”

This news, will, of course, irritate the Obama haters, but they’ll get over it, and who cares anyway?

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Posted by on September 2, 2011. Filed under Commentary. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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3 Responses to Oddsmakers: Obama can’t possibly lose in 2012

  1. Michael John Scott

    September 2, 2011 at 10:25 am

    I’ve no doubt he’ll win. America elected one loon and doubt they’ll have the stomach for it again.

  2. Collin Hinds

    September 2, 2011 at 3:39 pm

    It looks like the Republicans are narrowing down to two complete nuts, one from the North, the other from the South, and a mormon. I, too, feel good about Obama’s odds. And I agree–who cares what the psycho-infantile right thinks. Oops, I meant left–sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference.

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