Nate Silver: Obama has 73% chance of Winning Election
The Republican National Convention was more like a side show than a gathering of intelligent, thoughtful folk. From Chris “balloon man” Christie, to the ludicrous spectacle of Clint Eastwood talking to a chair, and finally, to the nominee himself, Willard Mitt Romney, trying to convince America he’s just a regular guy. Despite all of the silliness Mittens got a bounce, albeit a little one, out of the convention.
Just days after the end of the Republican National Convention, it looks like Mitt Romney’s “bounce” is pretty modest, writes Nate Silver for the New York Times. Rasmussen’s poll produced the best result, giving Romney a five-point swing and a three-percentage-point lead now. Ipsos now has Romney one point behind President Obama, for a three-point gain. And Gallup still has Obama one point in the lead, although, as Gallup uses a seven-day window, it’s poll is only halfway through the convention.
Add up all the results, preliminary though they may be, and Silver is giving Obama a 73.1% chance at winning the election in November, just off his highest rating of the year, 73.6% on Aug. 16. “But whatever assumptions you make about a convention bounce, it introduces more noise into the polling,” says Silver, noting that next week “the pressure will then be on Mr. Obama.”
What do you think? Did Mittens convince you to vote republican on November 6, 2012? Is 73% a number that makes you happy? Let us know in the comments.
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Go, go, go, Obama,
Even though, I’m from Canada.
We love you here,
Cause you’re so dear
To our liberal, caring hearts.
Take that Prime Minister Harper !
For my American on line friends, Mr. Harper is our conservative Prime Minister who I can’t stand. I am looking forward to the Democratic National Convention. American politics is so much more entertaining.
Rick, it may be entertainment from the outside, but from this side it sucks. For a lot of us, we maybe seeking refugee status in Canada if Romney actually does win. Not even close to kidding around. If you can help your friends on this side of the border, just in case, it would be something we would be grateful for. Some of us have pissed off enough rethugs that we have targets on our backs if they win this election. I have seen many, many things that make it clear, the right to vote for a lot of people in the USA is in danger if they win. Women and Minorities, but I am sure with all of the voter ID laws, it is obvious that all liberals are in danger. I am sure for every good person commenting here on MMA, there are at least a couple of rethugs who are keeping track of it, a few who are keeping tabs on names and probably a few who have even sent in death threats to the staff or a poster here. It used to be dismissed as the ranting of an insane few who would never do anything, now one has to wonder if they aren’t the opinions of the majority of conservative thinkers. Not many sane voices from that side anymore. Is Canada ready for a lot of liberals to move north?
I have received any number of threats Jason.
What do you mean by threats? Give specific or general examples, or would they endanger your life, Mike? I am quite naive here!
Silver has accurately predicted every race, even the congressional ones, for the last several years so this is good news.