Election Prediction from ‘The Week’ News Magazine

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The web is filled with projections today, and so it should be, as it is Election 2012.  Today Americans will determine the course of the country for the next four years.  As a result I’m going to publish a few of the opinions of the more reliable prognosticators around the world.  Here’s what Marc Ambinder thinks will happen today:

Based on the final round of polls, conversations with Republican and Democratic insiders, the calculations of all those statistical folks, and peer pressure, here is my 2012 United States presidential election projection.

President Obama: 332 electoral votes

That is, subtract North Carolina and Indiana from his 2008 accumulation. My outlier state is Florida. I think Obama will win Florida.

Mitt Romney: 206 electoral votes.

Popular vote estimation: Obama: 50.4 percent. Romney: 48.1 percent. Other: 1.6 percent.

How will we know if this scenario is likely?

If President Obama wins Virginia, something that the networks will probably be able to project around 8 pm ET, then … well, it’s probably going to be a long night for Governor Romney. Remember, polls in Florida’s panhandle close at 8 pm ET. If Romney wins Virginia very narrowly, or if it’s too close to call late into the evening, I think Obama ends up winning without Virginia (down to 319) and Florida (down to 290) and possibly Colorado (down to 281).

Now, to the Senate races: I think Republicans pick up zero to one seats, perhaps grabbing Montana in addition to North Dakota (and losing Missouri and Indiana).

House races: I think Democrats might pick up a few seats, but just a few. Possible that Republicans could do the same. The split is probably +/- seven on either side.

Now:

If Romney runs the table on Obama, I think he’ll take in excess of 52 percent of the popular vote, and will flip Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin for a total of 271 electoral votes. Throw in Ohio, and he’s up to 289.

I think Republicans will pick up two seats in this scenario in the Senate, and add a few seats to their House total too.

From Marc Ambinder of The Week Web Magazine.

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Professor Mike

Professor Mike is a left-leaning, dog loving, political junkie. He has written dozens of articles for Substack, Medium, Simily, and Tribel. Professor Mike has been published at Smerconish.com, among others. He is a strong proponent of the environment, and a passionate protector of animals. In addition he is a fierce anti-Trumper. Take a moment and share his work.
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11 years ago

I hope your prediction is dead on. If Obama wins and has to deal with a Republican congress, nothing will get done again.

11 years ago

Eh ! The majority of the world, including Canada is with Obama! So, America, smarten up, or go down being laughed at by the world in general, just like when George W. Bush was in power.

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