Death by Asteroid: How You Are Unlikely to Die
About Michael John ScottMr. Scott is the owner and publisher of Mad Mike's America. He is a U.S. Army veteran, career law enforcement executive, and dog trainer. He is a university professor, and criminal justice consultant, holding several degrees, including a master's in criminal justice and human services. He has completed the requisite coursework toward his doctorate, and is still working on his dissertation.
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A huge meteorite flared through the skies over Russia’s Chelyabinsk region early Friday, triggering a powerful shock wave that injured hundreds of people.
On February 15th DA14, an asteroid 45 metres across, will sail past the Earth at 7.8km a second (4.9 miles a second). At just 27,700km away, it is well within the range of communication satellites. It will be the closest encounter on record with an asteroid this big.
In 1908 an asteroid estimated to be around 100 metres in diameter destroyed 2,000 km² of forest in Siberia. Thankfully, such events are rare. NASA has identified 9,600 “near-Earth objects” since 1995, but just 861 with a diameter of 1km or more.
The greatest threat to Earth is the 140-metre wide AG5; but it has just a 1-in-625 chance of hitting Earth, and not until February 5th 2040. More prosaic things are far more dangerous. According to data from America’s National Safety Council, 27 people died in 2008 in America from contact with dogs (a one in 11m chance of death).
The chart below compares the odds of dying in any given year from choking, cycling, being struck by lightning or stung by a bee.
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James Smith
February 15, 2013 at 9:27 am
The walking one is my concern. I walk a lot and I have already been hit by a car once. There have also been several close calls.
Even so, the health benefits of “shank’s mare” far outweigh the dangers, I think.
Michael John Scott
February 15, 2013 at 9:28 am
Stephen King was almost killed by a car while walking, as well as scores other people. I myself have come close while walking. I always try to walk against the flow of traffic.
Jess
February 15, 2013 at 11:10 am
I have a list a mile long of my “accidents” I should be dead at the very least, 5 times by now. Maybe I really am part cat like my girlfriends keep telling me.
James Smith
February 15, 2013 at 11:33 am
I know exactly how you feel, Jess. A month or so ago, I was at a friend’s house swimming in their pool. His mother saw how many scars I had from various “incidents” and asked why I was not dead. I told her only the good die young. I expect to have at least another 20 or 30 years.
E.A. Blair
February 15, 2013 at 10:27 pm
Graphs like this are misleading; the problem is that the chances of dying under such circumstances are due primarily to the rarity of the event itself. As a counterexample, air travel is statistically safer than driving, but what are your odds of survival if you happen to be on one of the small number of planes that crash? If a large meteor struck your city or town, how far away from the impact point would you have to be to have reasonable odds of escaping alive or without varying degrees of injury?
Most of the causes of death in that chart are rather specific; they could strike someone within arm’s reach yet leave you unscathed. I can only see four in that chart (other than the asteroid) that would be extremely likely to affect large numbers of victims: fire, forces of nature, cold and storms. If I was crossing a street with a friend, a car could take the other person yet leave me untouched. If a car-sized meteoroid came down five blocks away, it’d affect a lot more people.
Bill Formby
February 16, 2013 at 2:02 pm
Good point Chris. Like in 2001 the stats of “killed by planes flying into my building” went way up. In interesting statistic these days is that, in the category of accidental deaths, the new leader is death by over dose of prescription drugs. This tops auto accidents, street drugs, accidents at home, guns, etc.
E.A. Blair
February 16, 2013 at 2:15 pm
Who’s Chris?