Now for the bad news: generic ballot polls have been trending in favor of Republicans recently, which should temper Democrats’ optimism heading into the midterms, and that tempering is what keeps democrats at home on election day.
It’s important to remember that at this point in 2010, Pew gave Democrats a one-point edge on the generic ballot, and everyone saw how that election turned out. In addition, Republicans are still heavily favored to take control of the Senate. So even if Democrats do pick off a few House seats, they’re still likely enter next year in the minority in both chambers of congress. If that happens the administration may as well turn out the lights and go home.