Birth Of A Hurricane: Soon To Be Hermine Still A Wave BUT Churning Out Tropical Storm Force Winds

August 24, 2016

MIAMI — Once it gets past the Bahamas, a storm tumbling across the Caribbean toward Florida risks getting worse, fast.

A hurricane hunter plane sent Wednesday found tropical storm force winds streaming from the storm, but no clear center, the National Hurricane Center reported. Until it becomes better organized, forecasters say it’s too soon to say what impacts the storm will have on Florida and the Bahamas.

But Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters warned it could strengthen quickly as it encounters warm water and light wind shear, with Florida possibly feeling its effects by Sunday or early Monday. Where in Florida? Too soon to tell.

“This storm has the potential to become a rapidly intensifying hurricane in 24 hours,” he said. “It’s like a switch gets switched on and it goes boom.”

Hurricane center forecasters gave the system, which would become Tropical Storm Hermine (pronounced her-MEEN) an 80 percent chance of forming over the next five days.

But the storm’s messiness continues to make predicting it difficult.

On Wednesday, two areas were struggling to become the storm’s center, one to the south and one to the north, Masters said. If the southern circulation makes a closed loop and becomes the center, Florida, which has not been hit by a hurricane in a decade, could see a much weaker storm. The storm would likely swing south and encounter Hispaniola’s storm-shredding mountains. A path to the north would take it toward the Bahamas, where wetter conditions and warm ocean temperatures could lead to a fiercer storm.

“It all depends on what happens over the next day because it’s still trying to organize and until it forms a well-defined surface circulation, we don’t know,” Masters said.

Models early Wednesday nearly all aligned crossing Florida.

What’s also far from certain is the potential intensity of the wet storm. Hurricane forecasters warned that strong winds and heavy rain could unleash flash floods and mudslides over parts of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas over the next two days.

A wet, slow storm could also pose big problems for Florida water managers, who have struggled this year with high water in Lake Okeechobee after a record wet winter.

In the spring and summer, dirty lake water flushed into coastal estuaries helped trigger a massive algae bloom along the east coast. Putrid chunks of algae hurt waterside businesses and left some areas closed to swimming.

For now, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has no plans to increase water releases to protect the lake’s aging dike, now in the midst of repairs. But operations will depend on the storm, said spokesman John Campbell.

“There’s very little risk that the lake at the current level would fail today. Our concern has always been … what happens if we get rain that drives it to a higher level,” he said. “The big challenge with managing water in Lake Okeechobee is lake water can come in much faster than we can get it out.”