Trump: “Don’t Believe Those Phony Numbers!”
Read Time:7 Minute, 55 Second
by Dr Mark Bear
I know folks: My headline could be construed as being hyperbole, and those of you who follow my work know I do not like to sensationalize, or use the form of hyperbole to make my point, but really, what else can I do here? Donald Trump, did after all, use these very words during the campaign for President last year. To be fair, he isn’t the only person who said these words or intimated their truth, as conservatives persisted in repeating the notion throughout the Obama presidency, in an effort to marginalize the accomplishments he made with our economy.
Trump however, made certain his supporters neglected to take the unemployment number seriously for the apparent reason of discrediting the Obama policies, trying to tie those policies to his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Sadly, he did so with success. In fact, on February 9, 2016, Trump said the following regarding the recent published unemployment number: “Don’t believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number’s probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.” A casual observer would have come away with the feeling that Trump was conducting an auction, but far from it, he was blatantly lying to his supporters and the American public, who would be choosing who to have as our next President. For their part, PolitiFact rated Trump’s claim, “Pants On Fire.”
Yesterday, Sean Spicer – during his press briefing – was asked by a journalist how the President took the jobs report since he bashed the reliability of the number throughout the campaign. Spicer responded, “I talked to the President prior to this and he said to quote him very clearly, ‘They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now.'” The entire press pool erupted in laughter, and while interpretations persist as to why the reporters were laughing, one thing is for sure; the Administration now has a very clear credibility problem. One would think that those who supported Trump for President should be scratching their heads as to why the sudden change in attitude. But there are deeper problems for our nation as a whole regarding this very serious issue, and I shall outline them below briefly.
First, the unemployment rate, did in fact, drop to 4.7% for the month of February. However, let me make perfectly clear: not one single policy has come out of this administration and Congress which has contributed to it. Furthermore, while Trump is wont to take credit for any positive thing he has inherited, while blaming others for his failures – an attribute he has clearly possessed his entire life as outlined by Tony Schwartz the ghost writer of “The Art of the Deal,” – and while he very well may be sufficiently narcissistic to believe that just his presence in the Oval Office improves our economy, that belief is simply not rooted in reality. While it is true the stock market improved during the transition and beyond, with Trump just being present, the only reason this occurred was due to big business realizing new tax policies and regulatory reform were on the horizon. And lest you neglected to recall; upon Trump being declared winner of the election, the stock market initially declined markedly. If Trump wants to take credit for the increase, he must take credit for the immediate decrease too. He can’t have it both ways folks!
Even Joe Scarborough, that constant Trumpeter on MSNBC brought this point up on his show yesterday, indicating how “people within the business community and in positions of leadership in corporations, were able to compartmentalize the outrageous Tweets and statements by this President, all due to these reforms. This does not bode well for our republic folks, and it really shouldn’t. Think about it: If those people who are in positions of leadership in businesses and corporations do not seem to care what connection Trump’s campaign had with Russian intelligence officials – a point which is being disclosed on a day by day basis in near linear fashion – all under the moniker of “profit,” then our republic has truly turned into one darned selfish nation. If profit is all that matters to these people, and they are willing to ignore the very real developments in this story about Russia, or how Michael Flynn was also a foreign agent while working on the Trump campaign, and with their knowledge, we are really headed for trouble folks!
Second, a question must be asked regarding this last point made by Scarborough: Did businesses simply refuse to hire people because they had regulations placed upon them by the former President? Why? Lest you are missing my point folks: The entire reason for regulations is to ensure capitalism works, that is, all people play by the same set of rules. Now, we can argue all day long whether that goal was realized by the former President due to banks getting off without paying the piper, but that is not my point here. My point is this: If corporations were that selfish, that they would purposefully hurt their own self-interest by not hiring people to fill key positions, what does that say about the nature of how our capitalistic society is currently working? Not much! Worse, corporations were basically operating under the same old republican tax bracket for the majority of the previous President’s term, due to their blatant obstruction. We ought not to forget that!
Third, let’s go back to Spicer’s statement during the press briefing. He told those reporters that he had, in fact spoke to the President about the conundrum presented to him, that is how the President has bashed the reported number in the past, and how he currently viewed it and Spicer specifically told those reporters that Trump told him exactly what to say. That demonstrates Trump is either wanting Americans to believe his mere existence in the Oval Office made all the difference in the world – and by extension the very presence of Barack Obama destroyed our nation – or, the Administration is going to persist in lying to the American people. That is, the Administration seems perfectly content on insisting the American people buy the lies which are not rooted in reality. This is where things get really dicey folks!
What happens when an international incident takes place? What if North Korea launches more missiles with nuclear warheads? What if another bout of Ebola just so happens to enter our country due to people serving in places where the disease is prevalent? What about weapons of “mass destruction” supposedly being found in Iran? What is it that we Americans can take Trump at his word for folks? In light of Spicer’s comment, it appears nothing much. If Spicer actually asked the President that question and he told him to quote him, it demonstrates the President’s continued willingness to lie with impunity to the American people, placing each and every citizen at a severe disadvantage. Simply put: We cannot trust him, or any of those people within his Administration!
Finally, where was the outcry yesterday from Republican leaders? Why did they not call Trump out on his disparate treatment of the Bureau of Labor Statistics? I can readily understand why Democratic lawmakers may not wish to address this, as they would appear just like their republican counterparts did during the Obama years, but seriously, what is it about this agency that Trump NOW trusts? Someone must ask him and hold his feet to the fire. For if we do not, we can kiss credibility and accountability goodbye in our body politic folks!
Did the unemployment rate drop to 4.7% for the month of February folks? Indeed, it did, but no thanks to Donald J. Trump who has spent the first fifty days of his term signing Executive Orders ad nauseum, while initiating some of the most heinous allegations against our former President. Nothing – and I repeat – NOTHING this President nor the republican led Congress and Senate have done, which contributed to this down tick. We all realize the Bureau of Labor Statistics use several metrics to report out their number, and while republicans relentlessly accused the former President of “cooking the books,” despite the Bureau being independent, I as a liberal or progressive will not question it. You should not either.
Arguments about the “labor participation rate,” and “real unemployment” may be very real, however they are easily explained when one realizes each and every Administration has used the same Bureau to use the same methodology in obtaining the unemployment rate. Labor participation is arguably lower than previous administrations however we have more “Baby Boomers” who find themselves retired. The real unemployment rate may very well be another story, however should be a separate discussion.
So yes! Mr. Trump: we realize the nation’s unemployment rate went down last month. However, we also realize you had very little to do with lowering it, and furthermore, you continue to enjoy inheriting the good economy the previous President left you. Finally, we also realize that should you not change course with several of your proposed courses of action, such as signing that health care replacement bill by Republicans and other regressive initiatives, your economic capital – as well as political capital – is going to disappear. The United States is NOT Trump Enterprises Sir, and you would do good to understand that point immediately!
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Hello George,
My apologies for the delayed response, however I have been busy covering the several other lies the current President has been engaging in, which is a clear departure from what he told his fan club – apparently you included – when running for office. Allow me to give you just a few below:
First, as candidate forty-five stated “China was a currency manipulator,” and now, he “no longer believes China is a currency manipulator.”
Second, as candidate, forty-five also stated, “NATO was obsolete,” and added because they did not pay their fair share.” Now as “President,” forty-five NATO no longer is obsolete.”
Third, as candidate, forty-five also stated, “We’re going to drain the swamp,” only to state at one of his “celebration rallies” that he always found the words “drain the swamp to be quite hokey.” Furthermore, please do yourself a favor and calculate just how many Goldman Sachs and political insiders forty-five has in his inner circle. and you will see this is most definitely NOT a promise kept.
Fourth, as candidate, forty-five also stated, “I do not want to be President of the world,” but once elected has pulled the trigger to bombing missions on more than now, three occassions.
Fifth, as candidate, forty-five stated that “our military is depleted,” only to just yesterday indicate that “since the past eight weeks the military is one of the finest.” This, of course, is laughable. Basic training in many of the armed forces takes a minimum of 8 weeks (Navy) to Army basic training which lasts 10 weeks. The Marine Corp basic training lasts over 13 weeks. If the military was so depleted, how in God’s name did it revive itself just by this man’s presence?
Sixth, as candidate, forty-five stated that “on day one I will repeal and replace Obamacare,” not as though this was a good thing as evidenced by the plethora of people showing up at Town Hall’s telling their representatives that they want “Obamacare left alone.” Needless to say, his first attempt at getting reform complete, has failed.
Seventh, as candidate, forty-five indicated “he believed in coverage for everyone,” and explained to the interviewer how “he realized this is not a policy which is coveted in the republican party and that this action alone would cost him votes,” only to see him cozy up to a plan which would lead to – according to CBO estimates – a loss of insurance for up to 24 million people.”
Eighth, as candidate and all the way back to 2013, he maintained that “getting involved in Syria would cost this nation,” and that “we would get ZERO for getting involved.”
I could go on and on here George, but I shall spare you the embarrassment. I say embarrassment because if you have any modicum of decency you will know that what I just shared with you in response to what can best be described as an ad hominem argument against a factually based article is not only on record for all to see, but known by most critically thinking people.
On the other hand, since you seem to have supported forty-five it is quite possible you suffer from amnesia. The good news for you is that amnesia is covered by the ACA, and you can get treatment. The bad news is that engaging in an ad hominem of this size is epic and makes you look foolish.
Furthermore, you seem to embrace a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, that is, because I wrote a critical article about our leader – premised on factual material – you assume that the piece is written soley on a motivation to “convince Donald Trump” voters “that he, “is not going to be a good President.” Sadly, it is clear that currently this man is anything BUT Presidential, and the fact that you support him, while your democratic right, does not allow you to provide that analysis. In other words, not only is it your opinion, but also it is unsubstantiated.
Here is an example of what I mean: Just because condition (1) exists does not mean that automatically leads to condition (2) existing. First off, you do not know me from Adam, and I sincerely doubt you know in any clear sense, precisely what my motivations for writing the above piece were. This is, in philosophic terms, the very definition of a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy (because of this; then this).
In addition, you utilize the Bandwagon fallacy, which simply means that since a particular segment of the population bought into the notions that forty-five sold them, than I and every other person reading your response should be on board with him and his supporters. It is analogous to what I call the fake patriotism argument – which while not a true fallacy in the strictest sense of the word – just so happens to be a valid fallacy. While 61 million people did vote for forty-five, a significant proportion of those voters premised their vote on mis-information injected into our nation’s media and social media controls, by Russians, which is certainly no reason to jump on the proverbial bandwagon.
You also seem to embrace an ad populum fallacy which simply means since people believe forty-five (you included) that my argument is automatically false, while the rest of the nation is wrong. But facts are pesky, and they most certainly do not go away as they usually are maintained for years in social media,
In addition to the previous, you appear to have embraced what we term a fallacy fallacy, simply meaning that you argue in your response that since one of my points is false – which it is not – makes the entire point of my piece false. You probably should have read through to the end of the piece prior to making such a statement.
Furthermore, you also appear to engage in the informal fallacy termed “argumentum ad lapidem” meaning you have argued the piece is inaccurate but demonstrate absolutely zero evidence for your specious claims made.
You in addition utilize the fallacy we term “argument ad infitum” meaning you bring up several points which nobody who is a common logically thinking reader wishes to discuss due to it being discussed for so long! In a similar vein, you also seem to employ the “onus propandi fallacy” which simply means you believe you need not prove your claim and that I should disprove it, and as you can also see shifts the burden of proof from you to me regarding your response. However, I have provided an established line of facts which do counter your claims made, and while I may be alleged to have committed the argumentum verbosium (using excessive verbosity to argue my points) I am quite sure any philosopher would give me the benefit of the doubt based on my factual counter response!
All of this to say Sir: Bullshit! Have a great day!
Dr Bear
Your article,like those written by most liberals, cherry picks the facts. Yes the unemployment rate went down, but you conveniently leave out the fact that there are over 94 million Americans out of work and the labor participation rate is lower than when Jimmy Carter was president. The U4 number does not include those that have exhausted their benefits making, as Donald Trump said, unemployment was considerably higher. Go to the DOL report and look at the U6 number, that is far closer to the real unemployment number.
President Trump is a liar? Let’s see he was not the one that told the American public, and I quote, “if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor” or how about “if you like your private healthcare plan you can keep it” when it was proven Obama knew he was blatantly lying to the American public on at least twenty plus times he uttered those words. Or after four Americans were tragically killed by terrorists due to the total incompetence of our President, Secretary of State and other cabinet members, four days later Susan Rice goes on numerous Sunday shows and declares the attack was the result of a video. Susan Rice, I am sorry to say, is not smart enough to fabricate such a whopping lie. The demorats have no place to call the President a liar.
No President Trump has actually, and it is very refreshing, been keeping his promises! Amazing! I never thought I would live long enough to see a president actually keep his promises. Now like many, Donald Trump was definitely not my first choice for President. But when you have a choice between someone that is not owned by the political left, and a dishonest, corrupt, pathelogical liar, the choice is easy. Don’t blame President Trump, the demorats put up, to use a term used by Hillary Clinton, a deplorable candidate.
Quite frankly I did not finish reading your article becuase it is the same accusations that do not hold water and is only a hit piece to try to convince voters Donald Trump is not going to be a good president. You and your left wing zealots keep losing any credibility and help President Trump increase his appeal to voters. Sadly I would have expected something far more accurate and intelligent coming from you.
So if Trump is somehow increasing his appeal how come his approval rates keep dropping like a stone. Everything you have said here is nonsense. Right Wing political talking points that have zero merit. As for “deplorable” candidates, I think your use of the term speaks volumes. Donald Trump is the worst president in the history of the nation, and, could well be the most dangerous.
The guy is a liar and a hypocrite and a shitload of other descriptors that escape me at the moment. Wait! Here’s one, wishfully thinking: felon.
Don’t believe anything that comes from the Tweetus!!!!!! All lies. All BS. All crazy.
You are so correct! What disturbs me the most about his blatant lying is how the media provided him a pass at each and every turn. During the campaign he told the truth a total of 7% of the time and I would have thought the media would have taken the allegations made against him then with a higher degree of exposure, but no dice. I imagine it will tale more than a mere 50 days for them to undo all this mess.
I don’t think he will be arrested or impeached. He will serve out his term, monster that he is, because, like Mike said, the congress loves him for what he can do for them. Yes. They, like his surrogates, are his toadies, and aren’t ashamed of it.
I find myself a bit more optimistic than others regarding whether he will or will not be impeached. Remember Watergate? It took several years before the Democratic Party had enough seats to be able to impeach, and then, they also had the Republican Party to get past during the mid-terms. I do believe the same will occur here.
We have reached the point where his lies are so commonplace, that the Former White House doesn’t even bother with disavowing them. Spicer himself joked about it in his last “press conference,” and yes those quotes are intentional.
But those of us who seek truth in a Post-Truth America must note two important things about this story.
1)Obama’s numbers were better for Both 2016 and 2015, regardless of Trump’s lies.
2)Forty-two percent unemployment is not only 4 times higher than the peak of the Great Depression, it is a practical impossibility. It would mean that almost half – 1 out of 2 – Americans is unemployed. If we actually had a number like 42%, the country would grind to a complete halt.
But my biggest concern with Trump is two-fold. First, this man lies so much – is so compulsive in his need to lie – that he lies about trivial details. He’s “proactive” in his lies, often spitting out a lie or two – before he’s even asked a question. He actually LEADS with lies. The American Electorate has never seen anything like this before.
Second, but foremost in import, is his connection to Russia and several other hostile foreign governments. This can be his Achilles heel, but it is the greatest threat to us as a nation. We’ve had corrupt leaders before, we’ve even had liars before. But this is the first time we’ve actually had a toady to a dictator in the highest office in the land. “Sad.”
I don’t see an end to the reign of Donald the Trump before the 2018 elections, and maybe not even then if the democrats can’t pull out a big win. Trump’s congressional toadies don’t care about the people, only serving their corporate masters.