The BP Doomsday Scenario
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I am tormented about writing this post because of it’s terrifying nature, but I have decided to proceed anyway. I hope every last word of it turns out false.
The reserve that BP drilled into with the Deep Water Horizon project taps a HUGE, HUGE, amount of oil. Current estimates are running about 15 billion barrels of oil and TRILLIONS of cubic feet of methane.
In this reserve, the pressure is running at around 120,000 PSI. That’s right, the pressure down 2.4 miles below the ocean floor, inside that reserve, is 120 thousand pounds of force every square inch.
What was keeping all that pressure bottled up was 2.4 miles of rock and earth. Mother Nature had everything at a nice stable balanced point.
When BP drilled down to this reservoir with a 21″ bore pipe, releasing this pressure to the ocean floor surface at the wellhead, they were maintaining a pressure of around 12,000 PSI at the wellhead until it exploded. The explosion severely compromised the integrity of the wellhead and destroyed the feed from the wellhead to the oceans surface, causing several leaks in the feed line.
Later, to try to contain the leak, they attempted the procedure known as Top-kill, where they inject drilling mud into the well head side ports and down into the borehole.
Some experts are speculating now, based on the short amount of time that was spent with the Top-kill procedure, that pressures involved along with the mud injection actually caused damage to the wellbore casings. This is the liner of the borehole that is going to the oil reservoir.
If the casing is damaged, then it is a problem of hellish proportions. It far exceeds the problems of the leak that is happening now.
To explain the problem, think of those pressures. At the surface you have the 12,000 PSI and in the reservoir, it is the staggering 120,000 PSI. That is an enormous pressure differential looking to finding a way to equal out.
The bore pipe casing is what keeps the integrity of the bore path by withstanding that enormous pressure. If that is gone, the pressure at the reservoir is going to start forcing its way up, flaring out the bore diameter as it climbs.
As it flares out the borehole diameter, the pressure at the top of the flare increases exponentially, eating away at the borehole faster and faster. By the time the relief well reaches the intersection point at 1 and 3/4 miles down, the diameter at that point of the borehole may be huge, tens of feet in a flared shape. This means the relief wells will not be able to stop it.
What is worse is that the pressure will keep on climbing up the bore hole until all that pressure will burst out at the ocean floor. Trillions of cubic feet of methane would vent at sea level at that point, expanding 30 times its original frozen state. This would most likely ignite.
In addition, 15 BILLION barrels of oil would be released in one instant, along with all that methane. It is not even conceivable in the mind what that would do to the planet.
Another scenario is that borehole would naturally cave in on itself at some point, causing the slower release of oil over a long period of time. Estimates are running as long as 30 years. This would be a unstoppable leak, because it would be coming up through the thousands of fissures, driven by all that pressure.
Thousands of leaks spread out over a wide acreage of ocean floor spread out over 30 years or instant Armageddon. End results will be the same.
During a interview with a veteran engineer who writes for a prestigious UK oil trade journal…
The real doomsday scenario here… is if that casing gives up, and it does come through the other strings of pipe. Remember, it is concentric pipe that holds this well together. If it comes into the formation, basically, you‘ve got uncontrolled [oil] flow to the sea floor. And that is the doomsday scenario.
Terrifying!!
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I know this is probably a stupid question. Is Washington aware of a possible scenario such as this? Even if there was less than 1% chance of this happening, why wouldn’t we be doing everything in our power to prevent it? Last time I checked, Armageddon is a bad thing. Another concern is this is the first article I have come across that discusses this. The science of it, although I don’t understand it all, is pretty sound, which is enough to scare me. Why is this something I had to dig for (no pun intended) when this possible outcome hasn’t been made aware to the general public through mainstream media? Somehow, I have a feeling that the “Drill Baby Drill” supporters would actually stop to think about what is more important in life than life itself.
[…] * Oil Spill: Maybe the cap will hold, but in the meantime the Guardian reports that scientists are confronting growing evidence that BP’s ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico is creating oxygen-depleted “dead zones” where fish and other marine life cannot survive. And for readers who’ve been wondering, “Well, what’s the worst that could happen?”, here’s the BP Doomsday Scenario. […]
Maybe this *is* the end. Maybe we really *are* all f*cked.
If so, all I can say is, the universe will be a better off place without a race like ours.
Thank You Krell, Good post!
http://www.orlandoadvocate.com/j15/biz-tech/technology/10147-how-does-a-relief-well-work
Bernoulli’s principle states that for an inviscid flow, an increase in the speed of the fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in pressure. By attacking it from the side, perpendicular to the flow, the pressure is greatly reduced.
Assuming the drilling mud is the same density as concrete, 150 lb/cubic ft, and if BP can pump it into the Macondo Well from the relief well on the side continously and fast enough so that it stays together and doesn’t just get blown out the top before it establishes a height of nearly 1.8 miles, the height that would be needed to equalize or significantly reduce the differential pressure of 10,000 psi, then they can cement it in from the top of the Macondo Well. It all makes sense to me now and I’m confidence that this method will work as it has in past leaks.
As long as they can get the relief well drilled and it is still is in good shape with the casing intact. If it is flared at the point that the relief well intersects, it is game over.
Where did you get the figure 12,000 psi at the 21″ diameter riser pipe? It seems too high.
My idea I submitted to BP was to set an old 2500 lb 23″ diameter wrecking ball on top of the riser pipe. They’ll laugh at this idea if it won’t even hold one square inch of pressure and there’s circa 300 square inches total cross-section of a 21″ pipe. They would need a 3,000,000 lb ball to overcome that amount of pressure differential of 10,000 psi (12,000 – 2,000). 12,000 psi is unbelievable. However, even a 60 psi differential (that of a typical garden hose) would create a force of 18,000 lb (300 x 60) across a 21″ pipe. Hence, I scrapped the whole idea. ?
Sorry about the wrecking ball design but the math definitely disproves the theory. If you are really interested in the physics and data..
Analysis on geological stratifications
http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/20/3/pdf/i1052-5173-20-3-4.pdf
Department of Energy Deepwater mining analysis and planning
http://management.energy.gov/documents/2007_Annual_Plan_January_2008.pdf
TransOcean DeepWater Horizon drilling platform and fleet specifications
http://www.deepwater.com/fw/main/Deepwater-Horizon-56C17.html?LayoutID=17
Very detailed comprehensive report on operation before, conditions during, and effects afterword.
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill
Thank You Krell.
I looked at 2 of the links above but I couldn’t find the well pipe pressure. But Then…. just moments ago, Tony Hayward testified to a congressional committee that the pressure of the well is 11k to 12k psi and that the BOP is designed for 15k psi. These pressures create millions of pounds of force, making it impossible to plug from above. Also, I learned from a knowledgeable gentleman on MSNBC that the casing is gone, therefore the hole is getting wider so the relief wells have a ZERO CHANCE of working. He stated that a low level nuclear bomb is indicated and that in one blast, detonated at 18,000 ft, the rock fuses to glass and it’s done. They better do it soon before it’s too late. Maybe they could contract it out to Russia, since they’ve done this before, as I understand. No?
On the PSI information, I had an inside source. And it is a HUGE amount of force over the surface area of anything trying to plug it.
I didn’t know that the casing is actually gone. If true, that is very disturbing news.
Russia has done it before, I think about 5 times.
BUT there are several technical reasons that I would be against it here.
Evidently, the U.S. had used an Atomic Bomb to plug a gas well many years ago. They didn’t put the bomb inside the well, but bored a new hole on the side of the well as shown the this video:
Correction:
This was a Russian well, NOT U.S., in 1963.
I wonder if this could be done with shaped charges in a more surgical like method?
The Russians were never known for their delicacy when it came to Atomic Weapons. They are the ones that set off the Tsar Bomba, a 57 megaton monster that gave 3rd degree burns to every one in a village 67 miles away.
Upon further review, I’ve come to the conclusion that a low grade nuclear explosion beneath the impermeable strata would be very risky. Geologists would need to analyze this very carefully, as if the impermeable strata becomes breached by the explosion that would release the 12,000 psi methane gas. I just hope and pray that the relief wells solve this engineering nightmare, although I’ll be surprised if they do.
I posted the following comment at this site:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpPNQoTlacU&feature=related
Warning. Using a nuke to stop the oil leak in the gulf is very risky. The risk is that the impermeable strata containing the 12,000 psi, one trillion cubic feet of methane gas could be breached and become permeable, releasing the methane gas in several locations like in the above video. If there’s no other solution then try to capture as much of it as possible and put as many skimmers out there as it takes. Do something! Hello? Obama?
That pretty well sums it up. Imagine trying to fix a leak in the wall of the Hoover Dam with explosives. That basically is what you would be trying to do.
I’m pretty much of the opinion that should they decide on that, it will not only be the end of the gulf, but we’ll be in the end of days…if we aren’t already.
Checkmate & Mates,
It ain’t 12,000 psi, it is 100,000 to 120,000 psi and we simply cannot make anything to contain it. It will run its own course.
H.Hesse
There is no assurance that this formation can be contained. The post, Krell, is excellent. The contemplation of an underground blow out has been the ‘worst case’ since they began tapping the ridges in deep ocean for wells. The duel ‘relief wells’ are no guarantee at all that we have made any kind of headway in containment. Contain Mother Nature? What kind of fucking fools are we?
There are no ‘back up plans’ … remember, this is a Cheney Halliburton group. They plunge ahead towards harvest to profit and make no back up master plans. It IS doomsday. We are left here with the only one real plan….
Get OFF OF CRUDE, FOSSIL FUELS. Fucking period.
The obvious-ness that a Green economy will bring us back from our now head long dive into third world status economically… is crystal clear to all those unafraid to see.
I live on ground ‘zero fucked’ by this. My beaches will be getting this sludge, as will Beach’s, many of us on the east coastline.
Game over… for carbon fuels. Or game over for humanity.
Mamma E is going to come out so fine …. and it won’t even take that long.
I remember watching a show, can’t remember the name, on one of those science channels. It was a cool concept. If mankind was suddenly taken away in an instant, how long would things survive? Buildings, bridges, etc
Amazingly short amount of time before it would be all gone, dissolved back into nature. Talking just hundreds of years not thousands. And even at thousands, it’s just a relative blink of an eye.
I just hope they have a back up plan to their back up plan and a back up plan to that. I know that’s what’s kept me alive all these years.
Krell,
Our team mate Kit has written of this type of scenario as well, inspired by a dream.
Excellent,excellent post man. I’m proud to have you on the team for this caliber of work,although as MH and others have written this could be apocalyptic and that thought may move us all to despair.
Because I’m Christian I pray for us all, because I’m human I mourn for what should be and fear for what could be.
Oops, sorry about that Kit if I replayed some of your ideas. Didn’t realize until OSO brought it to my attention.
If it is any consolation, you can have my “Goldman Sachs the Musical” poster I created. I promised, it has hardly been seen by anyone.
If pressure is pushing up and out at 12,000 to 120,000 psi, then there is no chance of anything “caving in” to stop the leak.
That is correct, Teeluck. It would require a huge Teutonic style plate shift to do any good.
Until I was able to get the pressure numbers, I didn’t realize how come they couldn’t do this or didn’t do that. It is obvious now. Not much works at 120k PSI.
I know that Mike has a comment policy on the f-bomb but if that relief well doesn’t stop the leak, we are all fucked!
4D is going to have a little more than his pension dividend check to worry about.
A comments policy against saying fuck? Really?
Maybe I’m immune.
heh heh heh.
I remember Kit’s post covering this too. Methane- even if not ignited, is such a bad greenhouse gas that if those Fucktardicans didn’t believe in global warming before, they would have to afterward.
Perhaps a more technical definition of “we are all fucked” is in order.
The reservoir has over 1 trillion cubic feet of methane gas.
1 trillion cubic feet, otherwise defined as 1 tcf, has around 2 x 10^21 BTU’S of energy. A 1 megaton nuclear explosion has 4.18 x 10^15 BTU’s of energy. 10^21 – 10^15 = 7 zeros difference (10,000,000). Even if the methane energy conversion efficiency is 1/1000th of that, it still is 10,000 megatons.
Well, I guess the very best we could hope for is that if the methane exploded, at least we’d only have dead fish raining down on us instead of fallout. Sounds like R’lyeh is rising.
We’d probably be lucky if it did ignite. 55 million and 251 million years ago, giant releases of methane caused mass extinctions, killing off between 50% and 95% of the species on the planet.
http://www.helium.com/items/1882339-doomsday-how-bp-gulf-disaster-may-have-triggered-a-world-killing-event
Jesus bloody Christ! Will it never end????
We really are going to pay the price one day you know. The planet will just think ‘Enough’ and we’ll be gone.
Only ourselves to blame.
A fine and scary piece. The owners of the hundreds of other oil platforms in the Gulf are proving to me there is no honor among thieves, you would think they would come to the aid of a brother oil company, because as things are unfolding, they will get tarred with the same brush.
Holte, I read one article that stated that equipment is being moved out of the area. Whatever that means….
Humanity is addicted to oil, so such a doomsday scenario is all but inevitable. Keep on taking that coke, eventually your heart’s gonna burst. Oh well, might as well get the apocalypse out of the way now. Sure would make those Mayans look silly!
Ya, they had it as 2012 and it might be off by a year. Did they count leap years?
Good post, but know what I’m going to do now?
Go grocery shopping. We still gotta eat.
Isn’t really anything to do on that side of it. Might as well have a nice meal.
What bp has done is a crime against nature and against humanity. These greedy bastards are economic terrorists whose action has constituted a direct and devastating attack on the economic well-being and lives of millions of innocent people throughout the entire Gulf region. It was equally as dastardly and bad as Pearl Harbor, 9/11, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, or the Nazi invasion of Poland. As such, those responsible for the planning and execution of this tragedy should be tried, convicted, and sentenced for their crimes, and that includes peripheral players and enablers like Dick Cheney!
How can you blame BP? One thing I’ve learned through my experience is that companies, including Nuclear Power Plant Constructors, will not do anything more than what is required by regulation. The Deep Oil Well Industry needs to be regulated somewhat like the Nuclear Power Plant Industry to ensure there are backup systems, shut-off valves, etc. to prevent spills like this. How much more would it have costed to have designed and installed a last resort shut-off valve? Not much compared to the catastrophe we are experiencing now.
This is not a spill. A spill is something you an clean up quickly. This is something that never should have happened.
Folks we have not needed fossil fuels for the last 70+ years. The principles of Tesla, Farraday and Pogue have proven this time and time again. Tesla proved there is free energy floating through our atmosphere in the form of static electricity. When questioned about where to put the meter by his financier and replying that “it’s freely there” the backing for research was cutoff. Farrady principles of perpetual motion again work, but they are squelched for profit instead. Pogue proved the ability to get these mileage ratings in the 1930’s, but his inventions shelved for the sake of profit: 8 cyl engine 100-200 mpg, 6 cyl- 200-300 mpg, 4 cyl- 300-400 mpg. These are facts people!!! The inventions hold US patents. These wonderful things besides solar, wind, thermal and hydro abilities would make this planet almost pristine in nature again from the lack of pollutants being flagrantly spewed at the price for profit. The time for change is now, for if not now, then when and if not by us, then who??? Here is additional info for you to peruse that hopefully will help you decide the “right” path to follow.
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2010/06/22/us-government-allowed-gulf-oil-spill-to-happen.aspx?aid=CD945
There is additional information and technology that allows oil to be generated by and from algae and hydrogen gas for hydrogen fuel cells to be made from urine. Why aren’t we seeing or hearing more advertising about this??? It’s called profit mongering. It’s just like Big Pharma, it’s not about health care or the patient, it’s about profit and the only promise being kept is to the shareholders and no one or nothing else.
skyjinx2000 & others,
Scary? Uh huh! As of about two months ago, the methane lake, created by the BP XXXXX<<<no appropriate word available, in the Gulf was 20 miles long. See the scientific journal Helium at:
http://www.helium.com/items/1864136-how-the-ultimate-bp-gulf-disaster-could-kill-millions/print
I do not know how long, wide or deep it is today, at at an uncontainable 100,000+ psi issuance, it surely has grown. Because salt water is fairly dense, it has remained under water, however, as it grows, all it will take is a typical hurricane in the bowl of the Gulf to get things sloshing, one end of it will come ashore somewhere in the Gulf or Caribbean and ignite. At that point, it will be raining fish, salt water and Cajuns in the Midwest. "Bibical proportions" really doesn't cover it.
Being one who thinks it is time for a real and permanent Flight from America to join the many already doing so, I see this as one of many potential trigger points for Marshall Law and all that goes with it. If you are not famililar with some of the presidential directives concerning Marshall Law, search it at youtube…check out FEMA camps while you are there.
H.Hesse
You’re right. Methane just waiting- an explosion poised to occur at any moment. Once nature lights a fart of that magnitude, we’d all better be on another continent.
I’m, not going to pray to the God of the people who caused this problem, but to the Goddess of the earth- the only thing keeping us from a hellstorm of fire. I am an agnostic (but I could be convinced there is a deity of some kind if this disaster is averted. Hell- I might even buy into the idea of Poseidon if a miracle occurs and a quake closes the leak.)
An apocalyptic fire scenario is akin to the nuclear Armageddon I grew up fearing in my youth. The lack of penitence among the perpetrators is appalling. There are not enough circles of hell hot enough for those evil bastards. But they have likely doomed us all to the same fate.
Nice way to start the weekend.
Krell
Good job! I too have written about this as I’m obsessed with it.
You are correct in that this is the beginning of the end.
Some people have written this off as, oh well it won’t bother me. It’s not in my backyard. I can’t help but think how small minded they are.
I’m not a religious Man, if I were I’d say this is almost Biblical. You know, the seas on fire and stuff.
I even think that old boy Nostradamus had written something about this.
In thinking of all this, I keep hearing those voices of Drill baby drill. Still with all this, they still want to drill more in the Gulf and where ever else they can. My personal opinion of these people is that they are traitors. Traitors of the World and should be treated as such.
Krell, I hope we’re both wrong.
I hope as well, Tim.
Although I believe there is a slim chance that the above scenario could happen, it is on the table so to speak. My hope is that these possibilities will not be forgotten if this leak ever does get fixed and 5 years from now it’s back to the drill baby drill with no contingency plans for disasters like this.
It is a world problem, not just a US problem.