Obama Lead Widening in High Quality Polls

Read Time:1 Minute, 29 Second
President Barack Obama waves as he arrives for a rally at the G. Richard Pfitzner baseball stadium in Woodbridge, Va., Sept. 21, 2012.
(AP Photo/Steve Helber)

It appears the president might be headed for a sure fire win in November, at least if his numbers keep climbing.  What was originally assumed to be a post convention bounce may well be hard numbers instead, as valid poll numbers show him with an ever widening lead.

(Newser) President Obama has been doing very well in the polls lately—and it’s looking less and less like the product of a post-convention bounce. According to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, Obama now has a 76.1% chance of winning reelection, up from 75.2% on Wednesday, Nate Silver writes for the New York Times. But that number assumes Obama is still riding a convention bump, and there’s some evidence to suggest that bump has dissipated. Remove the post-convention penalty the model imposes, and Obama’s odds go up to 83.9%.

Twenty-one high-quality polls have been run in swing states since the conventions, and Obama has led in all of them, by an average margin of six points. If that’s really the case—and not just the result of a temporary convention bounce—then Romney “will probably need some sort of external contingency to give him much of a chance at winning,” Silver says. And Romney “will need to see Mr. Obama’s numbers decline fairly soon if he wants to bank on the convention bounce hypothesis.”

Follow MadMike’sAmerica on Facebook and Twitter, and don’t forget to visit our HOME PAGE.

If you liked our story please share it at REDDIT.COM and PINTEREST as well as TUMBLR.

About Post Author

Professor Mike

Professor Mike is a left-leaning, dog loving, political junkie. He has written dozens of articles for Substack, Medium, Simily, and Tribel. Professor Mike has been published at Smerconish.com, among others. He is a strong proponent of the environment, and a passionate protector of animals. In addition he is a fierce anti-Trumper. Take a moment and share his work.
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of

1 Comment
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
11 years ago

How can his numbers not go up with Romney and Ryan both in self destruct mode? Love it.

Previous post Digital Rage: Don’t Engage the Crazy
Next post Does Your Dog Have Fleas? 10 Flea Facts For You
1
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x