Nate Silver to GOP: Polls Aren’t Biased-Obama Leads

Nate Silver to GOP: Polls aren’t biased-Obama is Ahead. Pic from

The Republicans spend a lot of time weeping, wailing and gnashing their teeth, particularly over polls that show Barack Obama roundly trouncing the feckless Mittens Romney.  Their age old claim: the media is biased therefore the polls don’t accurately reflect the current state of affairs.  Well, Goppers, put away your outrage but keep those hankies handy, because according to the guru of polling himself, Nate Silver, the polls are accurate and Obama is ahead, so get used to it:

(Newser) The GOP has spent a lot of time lately decrying the bias driving polls that show President Obama opening up a lead over Mitt Romney, but Nate Silver takes a look at how final polls have historically performed against results, and finds that while they have occasionally missed the mark, “polls have no such history of partisan bias,” he writes at FiveThirtyEight. The biggest miss was in 1980, when late polls showed Ronald Reagan with a 2- or 3-point lead; he ended up trouncing Jimmy Carter by 10 points. But that election was made unusually volatile by a single, late-in-the-cycle debate that didn’t have time to register in polling and the presence of a third-party candidate, Silver says.

In the 10 elections since 1972, polls have “overestimated” Dems’ edge five times, the GOP four times, and nailed Barack Obama’s margin of victory on the head. Accusations of partisanship, concludes Silver, are most likely “wishful thinking.” Click for Silver’s full column, or take a look at a few of the latest polls out there:

  • In Ohio, Obama has opened up a 51% to 42% lead over Romney, reports the Columbus Dispatch.
  • In Iowa, the incumbent is leading Romney by 49% to 45%, according to a poll out yesterday by the Des Moines Register. But with widespread disapproval over Obama’s economic stewardship, Romney has an opening.
  • In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren has opened up a 43% to 38% lead over Scott Brown in their closely contested Senate race, according to a Boston Globe poll. But with a debate set for tomorrow night and a hefty 18% of voters undecided, that number could swing substantially.

How is the president doing in your state?  Let us know in the comments section.

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Posted by on October 1, 2012. Filed under NEWS I FIND INTERESTING. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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4 Responses to Nate Silver to GOP: Polls Aren’t Biased-Obama Leads

  1. Jimmy B.

    October 1, 2012 at 9:24 am

    The republicans are losing and they are real sore losers, so they whine and cry. Just hope good news like this don;t keep folks from voting because they think Obama has it in bag.

    • Michael John Scott

      October 1, 2012 at 11:05 pm

      You have a point Jimmy. We need to do what we can to get out the vote. Thanks for stopping by.

  2. Dale Fisk

    October 1, 2012 at 9:23 pm

    I just heard that the latest poll shows the national numbers with Obama leading within the margin of error. I don’t like that.

    • Michael John Scott

      October 1, 2012 at 11:06 pm

      I think the national polls were always tight but I read not too long ago that the contested states are what counts in the end because it’s not the popular vote that elects the president.