Odds of Obama Winning Race Slipping

Electoral map as of October 6, 2012 courtesy of five-thirty eight.com.

It’s astounding what a difference 90 minutes can make to the future of America. Where President Obama once held an 87% chance of winning the election he now has only a 63%, and statisticians are concerned that may not be accurate, giving even more of a lead to one or the other candidate.  Here’s the latest from the New York Times Five-Thirty Eight blog:

For the last week or so, we have been hoping to decode a confusing polling landscape. President Obama still appeared to hold a narrow Electoral College lead on the basis of state-by-state surveys, while national polls were suggestive of a tie or perhaps the slightest edge for Mitt Romney.

If the current polls hold, predicting the election outcome will boil down to making a series of educated guesses about the relationship between state and national polls, and between the Electoral College and the popular vote.

There have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on Election Day itself. But I am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself — or he doesn’t know what he’s doing.

There are three ways out of the stalemate. First, the state polls could move toward Mr. Romney. Second, the national polls could move toward Mr. Obama. Or third, we could receive more emphatic evidence that the difference between state polls and national polls in fact reflects a potential difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College. (This latter case, importantly, would require evidence that Mr. Romney was running well in noncompetitive states along with evidence that Mr. Obama was performing well in swing states.)

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Posted by on October 15, 2012. Filed under NEWS I FIND INTERESTING. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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4 Responses to Odds of Obama Winning Race Slipping

  1. Dale Fisk

    October 15, 2012 at 12:06 pm

    It’s not time to panic but it’s time to start thinking seriously about getting involved. If Obama continues to do poorly in these debates he will be handing the WH keys to Romney and then we’re all fucked.

  2. Jess

    October 15, 2012 at 1:28 pm

    Uh-oh am I going to have to talk you off a ledge also too Mike? So many people looking for fainting couches and pearls to clutch I am now giving them sites where these things can be purchased so here ya go just for you. Yer welcome 😉


    • Michael John Scott

      October 15, 2012 at 4:58 pm

      LOL! No I’m not a fainter or a pearl clutcher Jess, but I am a realist. The numbers are what they are, but I am still sure Obama will win, unless he has another miserable debate performance. Loved the links 🙂

      • Jess

        October 15, 2012 at 6:45 pm

        Couple of those polling outfits being touted, are so republican leaning it isn’t even funny. Ras, Zogby, Gravis or whtever the hell they are calling themselves these days. Hell, even AZ is within moe right about now according to some polls. Ohio has already started early voting but won’t release figures, FL has also and it’s dems in the lead there, as far as early voting from a couple things I have seen.

        Last election it was a foregone conclusion that old walnuts and the Tundra twit were going to win right up to the end. O-Joe’s ground game in most states, is double what he had in 08, so don’t worry till Nov 6th. Or do, but do what I am doing, go register some voters in yer copious free time or make calls. I’ve registered about 400 myself over the last few months. I’ll be going out again this weekend, since it’s the deadline here next Monday, then I will start making calls to different states. It’s not a lot to be sure in CA, but they will help down ballot races. Most of the people I have registered are Latino and “others” like myself 🙂