Why Bernie Sanders’ Surge in Popularity Will Soon Fizzle Out
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Picking Bernie Sanders’ cabinet might be a wee bit premature, but he has been getting a lot of glowing press lately because of his strong showing as a challenger to Hillary Clinton. The Vermont senator better enjoy it while it lasts, however, as his popularity might well be short-lived if two new analyses are correct:
- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Silver thinks Sanders might well win both Iowa and New Hampshire for a simple reason: “Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire are really liberal and really white, and that’s the core of Sanders’s support.” After that, Sanders would have to appeal to more moderate and conservative Democrats, along with non-white Democrats, a group with which he is particularly weak. So far, at least, he hasn’t been able to make a dent with any of those groups in the polls, meaning Iowa and New Hampshire will likely be his last hurrahs.
- Nate Cohn, New York Times: “Clinton still holds a huge lead among moderate and conservative Democrats—white and nonwhite alike. Whether Mr. Sanders can close the gap among these voters will determine the seriousness of his candidacy and whether he can pick up more delegates in other primaries. There aren’t many reasons to expect he will break through, and he certainly isn’t doing it yet.” If he can’t, it’s a blowout, because Sanders probably won’t beat Clinton by much among even liberal Democrats.
In better news the GOP is scared to death of ‘dangerously radical’ democrats like Bernie Sanders.
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this is clickbait and not a real article.
Bullshit!! We don’t need clickbait. Why don’t you click the live links to Five-Thirty-Eight and the New York Times idiot, and then tell me how those stories happen to be in both publications? Go away troll.
Who the fuck are you? A TROLL no doubt. What a stupid thing to say about an article that has all sorts of valid trackback links. You’re talking through your ass fool.
Bernie is the Ron Paul of the left. And will be treated much the same. They’ll rig the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, just for starters. And he’ll get half the speaking time at the debates than Killary does, assuming they let him in at all. The Party won’t give him any money. Soros won’t take his calls. Etc. etc.
But hey, after the primaries, I’ll get some folks a beer to cry into at the local pub. You’ll finally know how I’ve felt for years now.
“the Ron Paul of the left.” Interesting and you are probably right on all counts.
The author conveniently leaves out the single best reasons why he SHOULD catch on.
1. He is the only candidate not beholden to a billionaire or bank.
2. His positions are not radical, but exactly the positions that reflect the values of most Americans in poll after poll.
You’re preaching to the choir Stan, but I have to disagree on his chances of winning.
“The author conveniently leaves out the single best reasons why he SHOULD catch on.”
Why would the author, a Bernie fan, leave that out? Because it’s not germane to the discussion at hand.
I think you are grossly underestimating Bernie Sanders. For one thing he is doing remarkably well given his campaign is in its infancy (only a couple of months) while Hillary has been running, in reality, for years since 2008. Bernie is, for the moment, an underdog just as Obama was and we all saw how that plaid out. Sanders has artfully laid out the most cogent campaign on issues that are of great importance to the people, Democrats and more, and their interests. He knows the issues, he has done his homework and knows the facts and figures and makes a powerful case for his agenda. Hillary has been silent and evasive – not answering the most fundamental questions, like where does she stand on taxing the rich and big corporations. Hillary had bad baggage in 2008 (like managed care and Bill’s deregulation of the big banks and job exporting and surrender of trade sovereignty under NAFTA) as she voted for Bush’s war and then was the only Democrat that refused to apologize to the American people; and since then has substantially added to that (her affiliations with Monsanto, Walmart and Wall Street). This puts her in stark contrast at polar opposites to Bernie on labor issues, union busting, minimum wage, equal wages, regulation of big business and banks, etc… Polls on the substance of the issues score a very different picture of the opinion of the people than this premature pitting of, assumed at that, personalities against each other, that is vaguely done at that. Most of all you confuse moderate and conservative Democrats with moderate and conservative Republicans when these are very different animals. Also, Bernie Sanders has a most universal appeal on a broad spectrum of issues that Democrats of all shades strongly support.
I love Bernie, but he can’t win, despite early victories.
I love Bernie but he won’t win the nomination. Secondly, your criticisms of Clinton are republican talking points, and I’m always disappointed when I hear democrats repeating them. Unlike the republicans dems are famous for eating their own young.
Yeah, but I sort of like old Bernie. I would not waste my vote on him because he does not stand a chance but hopefully he will bring up some issues that Hillary has been avoiding.
I wouldn’t underestimate Bernie Sanders or the population at large for that matter. Bernie is bringing up issues that are important to the average American. You can take a long look back at his voting record and it’s clear that his positions have not changed over the years. His message is clear and to the point. He’s running as a Democrat so as not to take votes away from the Democratic front runner no matter who ends up with the nomination. If it’s between Sanders and Trump, you’re telling me you think Bernie couldn’t win? I think you’re as wrong as Trump’s combover! #FeelTheBern
Sorry. I am a huge Bernie fan, but I’m a realist. While Sanders supporters are outspoken, that doesn’t change his chances of winning. All the expert such as Nate Silver, and others put Bernie’s chances of winning the nomination around 5%. Sad but true I’m afraid.