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I’m also somewhat familiar with longer cycles, like the predicted Grand Minimum, called the “Maunder Minimum when it last occurred in the 17th century. Apparently, that was a period of reduced sunspot activity unrelated to the 11-year cycle.
Despite the giggling that occurs every time we get a cold January morning in South Florida, there’s little doubt that Earth’s climate is getting hotter on the average and the effect is strong and observable in high latitudes, but the question of the rate of heating is subject to some uncertainty.
An article in The Astrophysical Journal: “Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs, ” predicts that the coming Grand Minimum starting around 2020 will give us an additional 7% reduction in solar output, and probably, much to the annoyance of HF band users, fewer sunspots.
You’re right, that should reduce the rate of increase in global warming for a time, but not the warming itself. If you’re cynical and think that the giggling party will use this to deny the whole thing and all the data, I agree with you. They will fight this to the death. Not their own death, of course, they’ll already be dead when the world climate goes to hell and the land and sea become far more toxic and inhospitable.
It’s my grandchildren and their children who will, barring some technological miracle, pay the price.