How Accurate Were My Trump-Kim Meeting Predictions?
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I am writing this just a few hours prior to the “Great Summit.” I thought I would use my prophet powers to sort of guess at the announced outcome of the “Singapore Showdown.”
Unlike the showdowns we are used to seeing in the good old western movies the clarity of the outcome here will be something between a dense fog and a well-stained pane of glass. What we are going to have is a breakdown in communications, not between the two principles, but between what they actually agree on and what they tell the public they agree on.
The way I see this is that it is a situation where both people must win and both must lose simultaneously. That sounds difficult, and to a mere mortal, it would be but we are not dealing with mere mortals here. We have on one hand a Dear Leader whose people will believe anything he says is the absolute truth no matter what anyone else says. And on the other hand, we have the other contender whose supporters will believe anything he says and he could care less what everyone else believes, especially those in the media.
POTUS Trump has bet a lot of marbles on this meeting. He will label the meeting most likely successful and that a peace treaty is at hand and the only hold up at this point is the crossing of a couple of “T”s and dotting of a few “I”s. There will be, of course, a story of tough negotiation between the two but Trump won out, in the end, most likely with an agreement to get rid of their nuclear weapons. Little Kim, in his speech to his people, will say the same thing with an opposite outcome. We know that both of these guys are completely capable of lying through their teeth even when the truth would serve them better.
What everything will boil down to is this. Even if North Korea agreed to everything in principle the timeline screws everything up. Trump has said, “They will get nothing until they make their changes.” Yeah, but … you don’t just fold up a nuclear production kit, put it in a box, and pack it off to another place in a week, a month, or probably not even a year. It takes a bit of time.
Similarly, you don’t just take a closed off society that has been lied to all of its life about something and suddenly says, “Oops, we were wrong.” It would take a lot of time to have the North Korean people to adjust to being free. Oops, my bad there. Trump is trying to make us more like them than the other way around, but that would also take some getting used to as well.
In other words, even if they agreed to make changes it would take a while. So, is North Korea simply going to make changes without incentives? Nah, not a chance. Trump would have to put up some tangible goodies to bring about change. And how do we determine if they are making changes? Why of course we must monitor them over a period of time. We agree to give them assistance or at least lift sanctions as they do away with their nuclear materials. Got it? Wait a minute. Is that not the same deal we had with Iran that we just tore up? Huh?
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Well, not that it Nostradamus to make these predictions but I was pretty damned close. The interesting thing here is that, at the start of Trump’s tenure we had a working agreement with one threatening nuclear wannabe, sanctions on the other, every reason to clamp down even further on Russia with full backing of our allies. Now, we have no meaningful agreement with anyone regarding nukes, we have said we will weaken our position in Asia, we have acted disgracefully toward our true friend and allies, and are bowing down to our sworn enemies. It will take years to ever get to the point with NK that we had gotten with Iran, if we ever get there. The fucking Democratic National Party is still playing pocket pool trying to come up with a winning message and we the people are about the get fucked.
He got his ass handed to him in front of everyone.
He did. He agreed to stop the war games, needed to keep the troops at the ready, showered Kim with praise, and a promise to lift the sanctions down the road. Kim promises denuclearization, without condition, or verification. Kim 1 Trump 0. That being said, it won’t matter, because his name is on the door. He owns it and the Republican propaganda machine is already cranking out the crazy.
Never mind. We had a better deal with Iran.
Yeah and he dumped that deal. Guaranteed he’ll go back to the negotiation table with Iran. He hates Obama so much he breaks everything the former president accomplished and wants credit for himself.