Brexit—Are We Nearly There Yet?

by Neil Bamforth

Yesterday the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister, Theresa May, actually had a good day in Parliament. Well, in comparison to most of the days she has had of late it was a good day anyway. Various amendments and so on were put forth by MP’s, mostly against Brexit, and all were defeated.

The amendments put forward were generally various machinations to slow down Brexit, stop it all together, or, at the very least, to stop the UK ‘crashing out’ of the EU without a deal.

The only amendment of any importance that was carried referred to the UK not ‘crashing out’ without a deal, but was so vague that, even though it was passed, it actually didn’t change the fact that we will, indeed, crash out without a deal if no deal is signed up to.

With me so far? Good. Now stay awake at the back.

So. Theresa May is now going back to the EU to tell them that the deal they had agreed to has to be changed in order for it to have any chance of being passed through Parliament.

If the EU declines – as they are saying they will – then there will quite possibly be no deal, and we will ‘crash out’ of the EU.

The consequences of such a scenario are, in truth, unknown to anybody. That, of course, is not preventing both sides from publicizing their ‘beliefs’ as the gospel truth.

‘Remainers’ say it will be disastrous and chaotic. ‘Brexiteers’ say it will be fine and we will just carry on as normal under WTO rules. Normal? Normal?? Well, one thing is for certain, there is nothing ‘normal’ about all of this, and that’s for sure.

Not having access to the magical crystal ball that a significant number of both ‘Remainers’ and ‘Brexiteers’ appear to have access to, I can only say that all of us, without said crystal ball access, await events with a combination of worry, delight, alarm, concern and / or, in my case particularly, a desire to get drunk, just in case it does all go horribly wrong – one way or another.

It may well be that the EU is a dogmatic and decidedly undemocratic body some of the time, but even I’m starting to feel a bit sorry for them.

One minute they think the UK has agreed to a deal they can live with – ie, a not particularly good deal thereby hopefully ‘spiking the guns’ of other anti EU voices around Europe – when, lo and behold, the British Parliament reject it and the PM tells them they have to change it and make it better for the UK.

I might not have a lot of time for the EU – even if I did vote ‘remain’ – but, just what, exactly, do some of our MP’s expect them to do?

If the EU offered the UK an even half way decent deal, let alone a good deal, then they would simply be fueling the fires of EU discontent around Europe.

Still, we are where we are. On March 29th of this year we will, as far as I can tell at the moment, be leaving.

That doesn’t leave an awful lot of time to find a deal that both the EU and the UK can live with so, the possibility of ‘crashing out’ increases dramatically.

That isn’t just a problem for the UK of course – assuming it is a problem – what do I know? It is also a problem for the EU.

If we do actually ‘crash out’ then the EU won’t get a penny from us. No 40 to 45 billion Euros ‘divorce settlement’ for them then. That will, clearly, be somewhat problematic for their budget.

Given that the EU have rather a large amount of money at stake here, perhaps their somewhat dogmatic approach may mellow, given the likely loss of such a huge amount, and everyone will be surprised, or not, at them tweaking the deal enough for it to be accepted this side of the channel.

I doubt it but nothing would surprise me these days.

Donald Tusk – he’s something ‘high up’ in the EU. I’ve forgotten what exactly and, frankly, could no longer care less – has actually suggested that the UK will still have to pay, even if we ‘crash out’. Really Donald? Good luck with that one mate.

Have you ever had one of those dreams when you are in a car, or some vehicle or other? You are hurtling along happily until you realize you have no control and no brakes.

Well, I have. Quite a few times actually. In fact, so many times I even become aware its a dream I’ve had before while I’m still having it. At that point, I don’t worry about hurtling along without brakes anymore as I know I’m going to wake up. I just turn the music up and listen to David Bowie at maximum volume.

For the next 50 odd days, the neighbors are going to become extremely familiar with the lyrics and music of many many Bowie tracks.

I suppose I could call it my Bowie Brexit?

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