Rejection of Brexit Deal Creates ‘Nightmare’ For May

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In this grab taken from video, Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May listens to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn speaking after losing a vote on her Brexit deal, in the House of Commons, London, Tuesday Jan. 15, 2019. . (House of Commons/PA via AP)

by Rob Quinn

In chess, to be “in zugzwang” is to be in a position where every possible move will worsen the situation—and some analysts see it as a fitting analogy for the position Theresa May and her government are in after Tuesday’s historic Brexit defeat.

After delaying a vote on her Brexit deal to try to get more support, the prime minister still suffered the worst defeat for a sitting government in modern British history, with the deal rejected by a 432 to 202 vote. Some 118 MPs from May’s Conservative Party voted against the deal.

With a March 29 deadline for the UK to leave the European Union looming, May has promised cross-party talks to find a way forward—but she will first have to survive a Wednesday no-confidence vote called by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn. More:

  • A “nightmare” for May. While the numbers are worse for May than expected, her “dilemma is a more serious version of the same it’s always been,” says BBC correspondent Laura Keunssberg. She doesn’t have the majority to push her middle way on Brexit through, and “her many critics don’t agree on the direction she should take—a more dramatic break with the EU, or a tighter, softer version. Those two fundamental and clashing positions have always threatened to pull her and the government apart.”
  • What happens now? The New York Times uses flow charts to look at the possibilities, including a second referendum, a general election, a Brexit delay, seeking a new deal from the EU, or crashing out of the EU with no deal, a “nuclear option” seen as unlikely but no longer inconceivable.
  • The no-confidence vote. The Guardian looks at how Wednesday’s vote—the first of its kind since a 2011 law removed prime ministers’ ability to call elections at the time of their choosing—will work. If the motion passes there will be a 14-day period in which a new government can be formed or an existing one can “regain the confidence of MPs.” After that, parliament will be dissolved and an election will be held after 25 working days. Conservative MPs, however, including those who rejected the deal, have pledged to support May in the vote.
  • A plea from Europe. After witnessing Tuesday’s chaos in Britain’s Parliament, European lawmakers pleaded with the country to get its act together before the March 29 deadline. “The only lesson for them is that they need to sit around one table, opposition and majority to sort out what is in the national interest,” Guy Verhofstadt, the chief Brexit official in the EU parliament, tells the AP.
  • “Let’s call the whole thing off.” European Council President Donald Tusk, a former prime minister of Poland, suggested Tuesday night that simply calling off Brexit was Britain’s only realistic option, CNBC reports. “If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?” he tweeted.
  • “Let’s not.” Andrea Leadsom, the Conservative leader of the House of Commons, insisted early Wednesday that the government would neither revoke nor delay Article 50, which gave the government two years to come up with a Brexit deal when it was invoked on March 29, 2017, the Telegraph reports. ‘We are determined to deliver on Brexit on March 29 which is what a vast majority of Parliamentarians voted for in triggering Article 50,” she said.
  • No winners. While Tuesday’s vote was a crushing loss for May, analysts say there were no corresponding winners—apart from those who sought disruption. And whatever happens in the next few days, the shape of Brexit is likely to remain unknown for some time. “We stand here as confused and as uncertain about the future as we were a week ago, as we were a month ago, and really as we were when the result came in,” Joe Twyman of the polling firm Deltapoll tells the CBC.

This article originally published at Newser…

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Professor Mike

Professor Mike is a left-leaning, dog loving, political junkie. He has written dozens of articles for Substack, Medium, Simily, and Tribel. Professor Mike has been published at Smerconish.com, among others. He is a strong proponent of the environment, and a passionate protector of animals. In addition he is a fierce anti-Trumper. Take a moment and share his work.
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Bill Formby
5 years ago

I wont get involved in this because I don’t know enough about it. When it first happened I thought it might be a bad move simply because the vote was close, but after that I just shut up. I figured we Americans had too many problems of our own to be trying to give advice too others.

Holte Ender
5 years ago

Your number 4 option says if Article 50 is revoked there is a potential for civil war?

Civil war means one group of citizens takes up arms against another. Since British citizens are not armed to the teeth with firearms, I assume your weapons of choice will be cricket bats, knives and Molotov cocktails. I wonder what group of citizens will be on the receiving end of the potential assault from the disappointed Leave bloc?

Will the Leave army first conquer Remain Scotland then head south to London and the south east and finish the job.

The Royal family will have moved to a nice abode just outside Ottawa, so the towering intellects of Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson or perhaps Jacob Rees-Mogg will appoint themselves Lord Protectors Of Great Britain and everything will be fine and Brittania can start ruling the waves again. Unthinkable.

Neil Bamforth
Reply to  Holte Ender
5 years ago

I meant ‘civil war’ to describe the likely reaction of Brexiteers. Cricket bats etc may or may not have a place in what ever happens.

I voted remain don’t forget…yes, I am not overly fond of the EU – dogmatic, often corrupt, often undemocratic and with a desire to ‘rule’ Europe – but, as a major player in this budding empire, along with young people being desirous of remaining I gritted my teeth and voted remain.

However, we lost. For good or ill. Should there have been a referendum? Should Cameron have made the result binding? Probably ‘no’ to both but we are where we are.

The Brexiteers found their voice and, to much surprise, won.

If we now deny them via revoking Article 50 or holding another referendum weighted against them, what do we expect them to do?

Shrug and accept defeat after all this? or take to the streets in an angry manner?

I have no idea which they will do. I suspect it more likely the latter.

Violence can, occasionally, be condoned. Defending yourself against unprovoked attack, be it as an individual or a country is quite right.

The potential violence that we may well see from some Brexiteers if Brexit is cancelled, one way or another, will be their responsibility but, the cause of the violence will be the failure of our democracy to behave democratically.

If you give ‘the masses’ a voice and then ignore it, don’t be surprised if the masses you ignored don’t go quietly.

Regardless of what happens next, there will be trouble ahead. Much of it, I fear, most unpleasant one way or another.

Neil Bamforth
5 years ago

Choice 1 : Leave with no deal on March 29th and take our chances with WTO.

Choice 2 : The EU bottle it, improve the deal and we leave with the better deal.

Choice 3 : Article 50 is delayed for further negotiation with the EU.

Choice 4 : Article 50 is revoked and we remain.

That’s it. Tek yer choice.

1 & 2 Won’t cause any probs.

3 will cause protests at least.

4 will cause civil war potentially.

We are where we are. In my case, indoors with a few beers and there I will stay…especially if 3 or 4 happen.

Holte Ender
5 years ago

The sad thing about Brexit, as of today, all alternatives are bad.

If the British government was unhappy with the EU for its policies and the effect they were having on British life, they should have used their heavyweight status within the EU to negotiate while they still had a seat st the top table. Too late now.

I believe May and her government will survive the token vote of no confidence, but what then? So hard to predict.

5 years ago

And here, Zugzwang sounded like something to do with pushing train cars around – but then I’m not a chess person. Great word.

But I like the observation and wonder how well it fits our domestic situation with an electorate that isn’t able to elect what the majority wills and a government that is unable to do anything about the dismantling of democracy and the illegal practices thereof.

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