Trump Pollsters Juggle Numbers To Argue Against Impeachment

by Mark Bear

Imagine what life would be like if we had a person who would simply tell us what we want to hear in all matters. Well, if you are Trump, you can get just that. You too can have a pollster create your own reality.

A recent survey was sent to Trump supporters by none other than the remaining pollsters who were not purged from Trump’s orbit, because they provide him the findings he seeks. That’s right, you read this right: Trump fired and purged his pollsters because he “was receiving poor polling numbers.” That is, instead of fixing his problems with the electorate, he simply went to two of his go-to guys who provide him with the image he wants the public to believe.

For example, this past Thursday, Trump pointed to a “new McLaughlin poll” which basically states Americans see the current impeachment inquiry into his unlawful and abusive power while occupying our Oval Office, as basically not worth the effort? Why? According to the pollster, and as reported by Aaron Blake from the Washington Post, the following generalizations were provided to the public by Trump:

“The headline for McLaughlin and Trump was that Americans saw impeachment as an effort to prevent Trump’s reelection, believed Trump shouldn’t cooperate with it and said Democrats are wasting everyone’s time.”

There are basically two problems however, with the above findings. First, the questions were what we in the research business label as “loaded.” That is, the question in the survey is presented in such a manner whereby the respondent is sort of forced to respond in the manner the statistician or pollster wants. Second, the findings are a direct contradiction of what other reliable and valid surveys produce. Of course! If you fire all of the legitimate pollsters leaving yourself only with those who will tell you what you want to hear, this is the precise outcome one would expect.

Consider the following question on that survey poll:

“Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Impeaching President Trump is a waste of time and tax dollars and it will ultimately go nowhere, so the Democrats should focus on working with Republicans to solve our nation’s problems rather than focusing on trying to impeach President Trump.”

Okay, let’s break this down, shall we? First, who as a base supporter of Trump is NOT going to agree with the above statement? Second, with Mitch McConnell reportedly sitting on over 400 bills passed by the Democratic led House, how in the heck can Democrats “work with Republicans” no compromise position? They can’t. In other words, the question presents a false choice and is loaded. In statistics we call this type of question “juiced.”

How about this question?

“Do you think that Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats are moving forward with their impeachment inquiry against President Trump mainly for political reasons to stop him from being re-elected or mainly for legal reasons?” Everyone, no matter who they are, or who they align with politically realize impeachment is “a political process.” Again, the question is posed in such a manner whereby the Trump follower simply answers in the manner Trump wants.

You may be arguing well, that’s political polling, and here you would be wrong. McLaughlin damned well knows what that whether polling, or conducting research, we are to be doing so ethically. Juicing the hat any responsible pollster would say is ethical. Then again, it is Trump we are talking about here, right?

One last question:

“Historic precedent has always been that to begin an impeachment inquiry the House of representatives [sic] has always held a vote. Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are now breaking with precedent to conduct a purely partisan impeachment. In your opinion do you think that unless Speaker Pelosi and the Democrats hold a vote, the President is right NOT to cooperate with this inquiry?”

First, the question is simply lying. There is very little precedent as to how impeachment inquiries should commence. In fact, the Founders are explicit that “impeachment for high crimes and misdemeanors of the President lie solely with Congress.” Not the Senate, Little Lindsey. Not with the Executive, Trump. With Congress. Each Congress gets to deal with this issue in the manner they wish. Deal with it!

Second, the question implies that Congress is engaged in a “purely partisan impeachment inquiry.” Third, it argues in the public square that the president is RIGHT in not cooperating with the inquiry. Even with these issues as Aaron Blake points out:

“And here’s the kicker: Despite both of these premises being dodgy, somehow the poll registers less than a majority support for Trump not cooperating with the impeachment inquiry. It’s still 47 percent. That’s pretty remarkable.”

Indeed, it is. Think about this, folks: Despite Trump purging his pollsters due to his poor polling numbers, while using his favorite McLaughlin, he STILL finds less than a majority electoral support for him to NOT cooperate with the inquiry. And, this is with the questions being loaded or juiced.

Either way, it matters little. The real world finds different findings. According to a CBS poll, much more reliable than a statistician or pollster who is juicing the questions, 63% compared to 37% of Americans believe Trump should cooperate with the inquiry. But hey, when you lie constantly, you create your own reality.

If Trump wishes to believe in phony numbers, all while telling the public that Americans do not support his cooperation with the inquiry, he is sorely mistaken and legislative reality should hit him just as strongly as the fans did when he walked into that stadium last night to watch the World Series, only to be booed.

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