Coronavirus: Proceed Cautiously, Remain Optimistic, but Remain Vigilant

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The Plague of Rome 1879. ules-Élie Delaunay’s “Plague in Rome” (1869)Photo Josse / Leemage / Getty

by Mark Bear

Let’s discuss the “optimism” taking place in the media premised on a few governors’ statements about the “flattening” of newly reported cases. I AM NOT an epidemiologist, but I DO know how to interpret data, conduct research, review predictive models, etc. all related to this virus. And this is the reason you and I are having this conversation. Let me give you a few quick points.

First, deaths today are the highest we have experienced since the outbreak. Currently, as of this hour, it is being reported by World-O-Meter – an extremely reliable statistical recording site, that we have experienced 1403 deaths. And it is only 1:34 in the afternoon.

Second, New York has not been able to report out accurate death tolls according to the site. In fact, Mark Levine, the Chair of the New York City Council Health Committee states the following:

“An estimated additional 180 – 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. “Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don’t have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic,” said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee.”

Let’s pause here for a moment. According to Levine, an additional 180-185 deaths per day have NOT been recorded due to an inability to test, due to “a lack of testing supplies.” I bring this up because you are going to hear again today by the man occupying our Oval Office, just how many test kits have been sent out. My question: Where are they? Where is the PPE that has been promised?

Third, when you hear that the curve is flattened you must take the following into consideration: When looking at the site by clicking on the link you will notice “in each state a high number of active cases.” Why is this? This is because it is estimated by the epidemiologists, that it takes 14 days from the moment one is tested positive and the case is resolved by one of two outcomes; either the person recovers, or they pass. In other words, we do not know how these active cases will resolve, now do we?

In a similar vein, it is difficult to believe the curve is flattened when you do not know how many people are out there walking around with the virus. Again: I am not trying to cause fear or panic, but stating the cold hard truth about this. How many times have I said mitigation without containment is frivolous? We have people walking around with the virus and they do not even know it. Why? The incubation period is estimated as being at fourteen to eighteen days long. This means asymptomatic people may be passing it to others, as they disobey the shut in-laws being handed down. And we still have eight states who refuse to issue a shutdown order.

Often we hear how social distancing and maintaining the course we are on, is assisting. Okay! Then please do tell me how Churches are meeting across the land and how that lack of social distancing is effecting the outcome. The truth? We don’t know that answer, now do we? Yes, the majority of churches are streaming online services, but there ARE many that ARE meeting from California to the East Coast. As I have written, no more than five miles away from my home, a church is meeting defying the Governor’s mandate. It seems to me that these people want to bring about the “rapture” they have preached for years.

So what am I trying to say here? First, please be cautious when hearing the words that “we are experiencing success in flattening the curve.” We have some indicators showing in some places this IS the case. But we still have cases to be resolved. Furthermore, if New York has had to underestimate the number of deaths due to their inability to test, and other states are crying out for test kits, you can reliably assume that we have no clue how many people have this virus. And, nearly every epidemiologist WILL tell you that we are about 12 days away from peaking. TWELVE DAYS!

This is why I find the messaging highly irresponsible. We are hearing reports on CNN and MSNBC, from mayors and governors, that people continue to ignore the shut-in orders placed in their states. These are not even the churches I speak of. These are people meeting in groups. And oh, Wisconsin is holding a major election today this despite that Governor wanting to hold off on voting. Why was this overturned? You will have to ask the conservative wing of the Supreme Court for that one.

Placing the mixed messages into the populace makes people drop their guard. Without social distancing, you will recall the estimated death total would be around 2 MILLION people in this nation. We are by no means near flattening the curve in my humble opinion. And while I do not take joy writing these types of posts or articles, they are based on the FACTS. As I pen these words, I am listening to an epidemiologist from John’s Hopkins outlining problems with procuring tests, delay in getting results, and are you ready for this: UNRELIABILITY of drive-through testing kits due to a lack of expertise from those administering the tests. So again: DO tell me how this is flattening the curve? If you don’t know how many people are infected, the best one can say is this; those arguing that the curve is flattening are making an assumption.

You each need to proceed cautiously! Remain optimistic. But remain vigilant. Dr. Fauci himself has argued that a second wave is going to take place. IT WILL! How do we know? Because if history is any indicator – and it is – the methods we see taking place now at mitigating without containment were practiced back then – the virus called the Spanish Flu circulated the globe nearly four times and America had three large waves with the last one being the deadliest.

Peace to all!

In case you missed it: Trump Relying Heavily on Kushner’s COVID19 Advice, 

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Bill Formby
3 years ago

Good points Mark. The one thing that most of these folks are missing is the lack of a sufficient time line for extrapolation of the data. Actually, we really do not want enough time but that is what we would need to develop anywhere near and accurate measure. For example, we have had enough experience with just the normal flu, auto accidents, murders, etc., that we can be fairly accurate with our predictions. If this comes back year after year we will be able to develop a baseline on it, but is far too soon and much too unpredictable. Our best option at the moment is as you, be optimistic but act out of an abundance of caution. I do not believe anything that the government is putting out because Trump is tainting the federal government information trying to make himself look good. Local governments are upping the estimates to frighten people into complying with the lock in rules. They are right in the sense that that if you are not around anyone else you may be safe.
It is ironic, in a way, given certain parameters I or probably any other social scientist can predict the murder rate, death by accident, even the probability of being killed by a shark, but this curve ball has taken much of our certainty away. Eventually, it will become part of the known statistical findings. But that will be after Donald Trump has gone away and some semblance of order has returned to the world. Remember, he is the guy who likes chaos.

Mallory Leigh
Reply to  Bill Formby
3 years ago

He is the guy who likes chaos, but chaos will catch up to him, and it already is, with the advent of this virus.

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