What Flattening The Curve Really Means
Read Time:5 Minute, 4 Second
Let us dispel of the myth that once the “curve is flattened” that we will experience less loss of life than had the curve not been flattened, okay? Let me explain it in the clearest terms possible here:
First, when epidemiologists discuss “flattening the curve,” what they are referencing is spreading cases of infected individuals over a longer period of time. Case in point: Instead of one million cases of infected human beings showing up in the Emergency Rooms in say, two weeks, as a direct result of allowing the virus to “wash through” as Trump likes to say, what occurs is that same one million infected human beings will show up over a PERIOD OF TIME – say, several months. The benefit should be obvious; the hospital capacities are better equipped to handle this slow, and steady drip of cases walking into their Emergency Rooms. We slow the pace of the spread of the virus.
Second, there currently exist two predominant schools of thought regarding getting things going again in our society. One school embraces allowing the government – who is I should mention more than able – to provide emergency funding for all of the nation’s citizens for unemployment, basic food needs, etc while keeping social distancing guidelines in place. The ONLY service this provides is the slowing down of the spread of the virus. The other school of thought embraced by the current Republican supposed “pro-life” party or movement can best be summarized as “let them die.”
Watch David Packman explain in the video below:
That is, Republican governors refuse to heed even the Center’s For Disease Control guidelines by re-opening their respective beaches, tattoo parlors, nail salons, barbershops, and even restaurants. But there exists a huge problem with this strategy or school of thought:
First, the virus shows up in “infected cases fourteen to eighteen days” after the individual is infected. We label this time as the incubation period. Case in point: Wisconsin, due to the Supreme Court overturning the Wisconsin Supreme Court to extend absentee ballot acceptance, that is by observing social distancing rules and guidelines, forced people in the state to vote in person during the primary, was a state which seemed to have plateaued in reported cases.
Please notice what I did not say in the above: I did not say that cases were decreasing, nor did I say people were no longer dying from the virus. In fact, cases and deaths were – please note the word were – holding steady prior to the Supreme Court’s ruling. How did this occur? Simple. Social distancing guidelines were strictly enforced and as a result of that election, guess what is happening now in Wisconsin? The caseload is on the rise again.
Second, it has also been discovered through science that an individual is most infectious forty-eight hours prior to that individual becoming symptomatic. I want you to think about this latter point for awhile. Forty-eight hours. That means you can bet your bottom dollar that there were people voting in Wisconsin who were in that precise moment of time, meaning they were not only carrying the virus but were the most infectious. ANYONE encountering these people was going to be more likely to have the virus, hence the uptick in cases in Wisconsin regardless of the alternative explanation that more people have been tested.
We would have had only 60,000 deaths perhaps, had social distancing guidelines and shutdowns in our states held through June. It was always dependent upon this but Trump – realizing his economy is trashed – is all too willing to re-open on the tip of a dime. Why? Because it is always the “economy stupid!” Right? Let me make clear again: The total number of deaths predicted from this pandemic – at the outbreak – has never changed with experts agreeing to not trust the models the administration is providing for consumption. The administration due to Trump’s inaction led to a strategy of mitigation rather than containment. Why? Because the virus had already gotten out of control. And, as a result, they simply wanted to allow the death toll to be extended over a longer period of time versus a few weeks, which is precisely what occurs when one flattens the curve.
This now leads to my conclusion: For Republicans to argue they have the higher moral ground these days is literally preposterous. They don’t! And no matter what amount of mental acrobatics they perform will assist in making their claim true. In fact, when you have a Lt. Governor of Texas arguing how many people his age “would gladly die for the economy to protect our future,” and you have protesters so callously arguing how “they need to get a freaking haircut, or go to the salon, or how they ought to be able to live free,” while acknowledging how “others have compromised systems” laying blame at those people’s feet, demonstrates not only a lack of concern, compassion, empathy, but also humanity. And if you lack humanity, you cannot proclaim that you occupy the higher moral ground and are pro-life; now, can you?
We have been losing approximately 2000 people a day due to this virus and Trump stands in front of reporters providing fake cures, admonishing how he advocates the injecting of disinfectant into a human being – the absolutely most preposterous statement he has made thus far – and his supporters still claim they did nothing wrong by voting for him. Their justifications and rationalizations in their minds, these people actually believe they hold no responsibility for this man’s actions, but oh how wrong these people are. Oh, how wrong they are. And, they know it.at t
Just last night, an epidemiologist on CNN confirmed what I wrote above: he still sees one to two million deaths occurring in our nation from this virus.
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In case you missed it: A Biblical Famine Is Possible
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[…] about preventing any of that; the goal is about spreading it out over time. This is what “flattening the curve” means, after […]
[…] From Mark Bear at MadMikesAmerica: […]
Cogent and excellent! Thank you for all of those that might now understand the whole idea of flattening the curve! This is not going to go away for a long, long time. Actually, it won’t go away at all. What will happen is we will find a way to combat it’s infection without mortality and we will hopefully have very effective vaccines that will prevent us from receiving this monster into our bodies! You are the best Doc, always consistent and informative!
There won’t be any vaccine for at least 18 months I’m afraid. There could be drugs to alleviate symptoms but they won’t mitigate morality. Our future is bleak.
Mark Bear I love your articles but I think that you outdid yourself today in your second from last paragraph where you state the following: ” In fact, when you have a Lt. Governor of Texas arguing how many people his age “would gladly die for the economy to protect our future,” and you have protesters so callously arguing how “they need to get a freaking haircut, or go to the salon, or how they ought to be able to live free,” while acknowledging how “others have compromised systems” laying blame at those people’s feet, demonstrates not only a lack of concern, compassion, empathy, but also humanity.” I think that your choice of the word “demonstrates” is perfect. It very definitely does “DEMONstrate” where this actions originates.
Of course Trump does not care as long as people voting for him vote for him first, then die.
You’re right Bill! He doesn’t care about the people, only himself.