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Just like with sports betting, successful political wagering requires a good strategy. And that means understanding your subject matter. Betting on a whim because you prefer a certain candidate might result in a win, but it is not a viable long-term strategy. You need to make sure you understand the election you are betting on. So, if you are betting on an election abroad, you should have a good knowledge of the country, its political history, its government structure, and the current state of affairs. And you must be able to identify key events that might swing voters. Just like with sports betting, knowing the teams and the players is key.
You also need to consider which markets offer the best wagering opportunities. There was a time when you could only bet on winner markets, but now there are dozens of markets available at every election and many special markets related to parties and candidates. You can bet on district result, popular votes, tipping point states, vice presidential nominees and etc. You need to choose a market where you can apply your in-depth knowledge to give you the best chance of winning.
In sports, there is a rule that you should never bet on your team. However, seasoned bettors can put any personal bias to one side and bet objectively. This is vital in online political betting – it is no good voting for one candidate just because you don’t like the other if all the evidence suggests that your pick doesn’t stand a chance. You want to find bets that have a good chance of winning, while offering good value, regardless of what you want to happen. Many political bettors would have bet on Trump in 2016 even if they wanted Clinton to win because their research suggested this was the best bet in terms of the probability-to-value ratio.
The odds do not always reflect reality. Even if one candidate is favorite with the bookies, it doesn’t always follow that they will win. The bookmakers set their prices on many factors and are always looking to balance their books. As we saw with the Brexit vote in the UK and the 2016 presidential election, the favorite on the day of the ballot was not the winner in the end.
Remember, team members of political parties are working on both sides to shift opinions via social media. If you keep a close eye on proceedings, you can tell if the momentum is changing. In the weeks, days, and hours leading up to a vote, public opinion can swing enough to change the outcome. These are just a few tips you should consider if you are thinking of wagering on political events in 2020.
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